Hump day brings a 10-game slate tipping off at 7 p.m. ET with Jazz-Cavaliers in Cleveland. Hornets- Pacers, as expected, gives us the highest total on the day of 247.5 and the largest spread of 9.5 points in favor of the Pacers. We’ll close out the night in Sacramento as the Celtics play on the second leg of a back-to-back against the Kings. Let’s get to the best PrizePicks NBA plays tonight, starting with Terry Rozier.
Selecting the right projections may be challenging, but with the assistance of OddsShopper’s NBA PrizePicks Optimizer and thorough research, we’ve got you covered. Let’s dive into the best PrizePicks NBA picks for Wednesday!
NBA Player Predictions | Dec. 20
Terry Rozier M/L 23.5 Points
Terry Rozier continues to pad his stats without LaMelo Ball on the court. It’s not helping the Hornets win games because they can’t play defense, but he is smashing. He’s averaging 35.5 minutes per game and a team-high 27.5% usage rate. His 23.7 points per game and 47% shooting are both career highs, and he gets to add to those numbers tonight in a pace-up spot against the Pacers.
Even though the Hornets are 9.5-point underdogs, this is a great matchup for Rozier. The Pacers allow the third-most points to guards and rank 30th in opponent 3-point percentage. We are getting pretty even odds across the board with this projection, so it’s where it should be, but I like Rozier to take full advantage of this matchup and get to 24 points.
Best PrizePicks NBA Player Prediction: Terry Rozier More Than 23.5 Points
Clint Capela M/L 13.5 Points
Clint Capela finds himself with an extremely high point projection today, and this is surely to come down before tip-off. The Hawks get a tough matchup against the Rockets, who rank second in defensive rating and have allowed the third-fewest points in the paint. I don’t know if I’ve ever seen Capela take a shot outside the paint, and I’ve watched a lot of basketball.
Capela is averaging 11.7 points per game, and 10.1 of those come in the paint. The other 1.6 points came from the free-throw line. The less on this projection has a 5% EV and 57% expected win rate on OddsShopper’s Positive EV Bets tool. It also has true odds of -134. If this does come down to 13, I’m still hitting less than.
Best PrizePicks NBA Player Prediction: Clint Capela Less Than 13.5 Points
Alperen Sengun M/L 20.5 Points
Opposite of Capela is Alperen Sengun in a favorable matchup. The Rockets are good against bigs, and the Hawks are bad. Imagine if pick’em was that easy? Well, it’s not, so let’s dive deeper. The Hawks rank 27th in opponent points in the paint on the season and more specifically 24th against centers. That is good news for Sengun, who leads the Rockets with 13.1 points in the paint on the season.
Odds are in our favor for this one, with all other operators juiced to the more. One of the sharper sportsbooks, Pinnacle, has the more at -140. Sengun is averaging 19.9 points per game on the season and in a pace-up spot against the third-worst defense; he will get to 21 points tonight.
Best PrizePicks NBA Player Prediction: Alperen Sengun More Than 20.5 Points
Two-pick power plays and five-pick flex plays have the most expected value. If you’re looking for more picks, check out our PrizePicks Optimizer.
