The Portland Trail Blazers will square off against the Denver Nuggets tonight in the Ball Arena. Both teams have a relatively clean injury report aside from Denver’s Bones Hyland, who is questionable. The Trail Blazers have fallen to 21-22 after a solid start to the season and need to click off some wins — but a road date against the Western Conference leaders will prove tough. Bettors should target this Trail Blazers-Nuggets NBA player prop for Tuesday’s action — too much value remains on the player prop markets for Damian Lillard. Check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays.
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Best Blazers-Nuggets NBA Player Prop Bet | Damian Lillard
Damian Lillard Player Prop O/U 7.5 Assists
The Denver Nuggets have dominated the Western Conference this year, but they don’t play perfect basketball. Their interior defense has struggled all year. The Nuggets rank 24th in points allowed in the paint per game (52.1). They even rank 26th over the last four games (56). Although Damian Lillard isn’t a great finisher, he should set up plenty of plays for Portland’s better interior scorers.
Other point guards have done exactly that against Denver. Chris Paul racked up 16 assists against them back on Christmas. Orlando’s Markelle Fultz and Cole Anthony combined for 12 assists on Sunday. Lillard has tallied 28 assists across three games against Denver so far. The Nuggets have allowed the second-most assists per game to point guards this year (9.6).
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The Nuggets are yet to limit Lillard to fewer than eight assists — or fewer than 30 points — this season. Lillard has shot a ridiculous 17-for-35 from beyond the arc against Denver this year, good for 48.6%. Considering the Nuggets have allowed opposing offenses to shoot just 35.1% from the perimeter on average, Lillard’s absurd 3-point shooting should regress, especially if Denver’s defenders decide to focus on limiting his contributions from long range.
Bettors can get Lillard to surpass 7.5 assists at -130 on PointsBet. This number sits all the way up at 8.5 at Pinnacle, a sharp sportsbook, as well as books like BetMGM and DraftKings. Bettors should wager enough to profit a half unit on this line there, especially since new users at PointsBet can secure up to $2,000 in second-chance bets. Bettors should also wager half of their possible winnings on Lillard to rack up at least 10 assists at FanDuel, where new users can get $150 for simply placing a $5 wager on the NBA.
Best NBA Blazers-Nuggets Player Prop: Damian Lillard Over 7.5 Assists (-130 for 0.65 Unit) at PointsBet
Best NBA Blazers-Nuggets Ladder Prop: Damian Lillard 10+ Assists (+195 for 0.25 Unit) at FanDuel
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