The NBA made a controversial announcement on Monday morning. Two of the association’s most infamous officials, Tony Brothers and Scott Foster, have been assigned to Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Let’s dive into how Scott Foster and Tony Brothers will impact Heat-Celtics Game 7 from a betting perspective.
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Scott Foster & Tony Brothers Officiating Heat-Celtics Game 7: Betting Impact
Scott Foster Slightly Favoring Home Teams
Few officials in NBA history have earned the ire of more players than Scott Foster, but he’ll still get to work Game 7. According to an anonymous player poll published in the Athletic, 25.4% of players surveyed labeled Foster the NBA’s worst official. While he also picked up 6.1% of the vote for the NBA’s best official, Foster certainly has his enemies in the NBA.
Foster will work as the crew chief tonight, and in the 12 playoff games he has served in that role, home teams have benefited from 53.9% of the fouls going against road teams. Home teams have gone on to win 58.3% of the time. Foster’s crews are averaging 39.4 fouls called per game this postseason, which is an average amount.
Notably, Foster showed remarkably little bias as crew chief in the regular season. Only 49.7% of his crews’ foul calls went against the road team. His crews also called an average of 39.8 fouls per game, which is in line with his postseason average.
Tony Brothers Hasn’t Worked Crew This Season
Pairing Brothers with Foster is an interesting move because Brothers usually serves as the crew chief. He worked as the crew chief in all 75 of his games called this season. It’ll be interesting to see how Tony Brothers adjusts to a crew role in Game 7.
Like Foster, Brothers is well known by NBA players. He picked up 28.8% of the vote for best ref, per the Athletic, but also 8.5% of the vote for the worst ref. Players seem to like Brothers not because of his call accuracy but because of his on-court persona — he’s willing to banter with players instead of shutting them down.
Brothers has shown a slight road bias in the playoffs. Across his 11 playoff games officiated, road teams have been the beneficiary of 51.2% of his units’ calls. This is a notable departure from Brothers’ regular-season numbers; road teams benefited from only 47.8% of his crews’ calls back then.
John Goble Favoring Home Teams as a Crew member
John Goble isn’t as infamous as either Brothers or Foster. Unlike both of them, he picked up zero votes for either best or worst ref. It’s not for a lack of volume — Goble has officiated for the last 16 years and has called 72 games this season.
Goble worked 22 regular-season games as crew and 40 as crew chief. Home teams benefited from 53.5% of the calls in the regular season and won 77.3% of the time when he was assigned as a crew member.
Goble has worked eight playoff games as a crew member this postseason, and home teams have benefited from 57.3% of the calls and won 75% of the time.
Betting Impact: Scott Foster, Tony Brothers & John Goble
I’m reticent to say anything definitive here. Although the referee stats may suggest bias, it can also be true that the road team actually committed more fouls or that the home team played a cleaner game. Further, we have no stats from this season for Tony Brothers as a crew member.
The referee stats we do have suggest the Boston Celtics may have a slight edge here. Scott Foster’s time as crew chief in this year’s playoffs has often favored home teams. The same is true of John Goble’s work as a crew member in both the regular season and playoffs. Again, that may not be a sign of actual bias, but it’s a useful data point for those handicapping Game 7.
