The NBA Play-In Tournament continues Friday with the Chicago Bulls taking on the Miami Heat and the Oklahoma City Thunder vs. the Los Angeles Lakers. With just two games on the slate all eyes should be on these betting markets. The public attention and information access should make traditional betting pretty efficient. However, OddsShopper’s market based betting tool has identified solid value on the NBA Play-In bets for two Bulls-Heat derivatives.
Legal Betting Age is 21+ in Most States. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-Gambler
Bulls-Heat NBA Play-In Bets: Two Derivative Markets Have Value
The Bulls needed a second half comeback to get by the Toronto Raptors on Wednesday. They are now looking to ride that momentum into Miami. The Bulls are 4.5 point underdogs versus the Heat. The game’s total is over/under 208 points.
Like the Bulls, Miami needs to win to stay alive in the postseason. They were defeated by the Atlanta Hawks on Tuesday night, who will now takeover as the NBA Eastern Conference 7th seed. The 8th seed goes to the winner of Friday’s Bulls-Hear matchup.
While the 4.5 point spread and 208 total in this game are efficient, there is still value to squeeze out of the NBA derivative bets. The sharpest sportsbooks have set the 2nd quarter total at 50.5 points, but the -105 Vig at DraftKings Sportsbook make it a strong bet. The over on this NBA Play-In bet should connect 54% and at that price has a 5% expected value.
The current state of the NBA betting market is also creating value on the entire 1st Half Total. This NBA Play-in derivative bet of 101.5 points is priced at -110 at DraftKings which is simply too cheap given its 54% win rate. The sharpest books are charging a bit more than that, but if you can have this bet at -110 you can expect a 3% long-term ROI.
Unlike most NBA betting systems that rely only on projections or “feel” the OddsShopper betting model uses the market itself to determine the efficient odds. The tool analyzes the market to find the sharpest books, then scours the industry to identify which sportsbooks are off from those lines. Grab a 7-Day Free Trial to find more postive expected value NBA Play-In Tournament bets, or high ROI opportunities in any sport.
