The Miami Heat will host the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight. At 41-26, the Cavs rank an impressive fourth in the Eastern Conference. The 35-31 Heat rank a much less impressive seventh and are 2.5 games behind the Brooklyn Nets for the final guaranteed playoff spot. Bettors hunting out a strong NBA player prop for Wednesday’s Cavaliers-Heat game should tail the prediction below — FanDuel has left a bit too much value on the Tyler Herro player prop markets. Make sure to check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays.
Best Heat-Cavaliers NBA Player Prop | Tyler Herro
Tyler Herro O/U 23.5 Points & Rebounds
The Miami Heat have seriously underperformed this year, especially at home — relative to the market’s expectations, at least. The Heat have gone a dismal 9-22-2 against the spread at home. Tyler Herro, who has averaged a full 1.8 fewer points and rebounds per game in the Miami-Dade Arena, is part of the problem. He has taken fewer shots while shooting less efficiently on his home floor.
Tonight’s matchup against the Cleveland Cavaliers may not go well for Herro. Cleveland has dominated against opposing guards this year — the Cavaliers have allowed the fewest points (20.8) and the fewest rebounds (5.1) to point guards on the season. Those numbers have remained steady through the last seven games. The Cavaliers have given up only 21.2 points and 4.5 rebounds per game to the position through that stretch.
Cleveland shuts down the paint and the top of the key while playing at an incredibly slow pace. The Cavaliers rank third in points allowed in the paint per game (46) and 30th in pace. They have allowed the sixth-fewest made field goals in the restricted area (16.5) and the seventh-fewest in the non-restricted paint (6.5). More importantly, they have allowed the second-fewest made 3’s from above the break. A whopping 74.8% of Herro’s shot attempts have come from those zones.
The books have this number set fairly (23.5), but the juice should be stacked on the under. Herro racked up 23 points and rebounds in his first meeting with the Cavaliers, which came on the road, where he has performed more effectively. Herro has lined up against the Cavaliers with Evan Mobley on the floor four times and is averaging 18.3 points and 2.3 rebounds per game (20.6). He is yet to record 24 points and rebounds against him. Bettors can still buy the under at -113 at FanDuel Sportsbook and should do so quickly! Readers who are yet to register at FanDuel can bet $20 and get $200 in bonus wagers.
Best Heat-Cavaliers Player Prop: Tyler Herro Under 23.5 Points & Rebounds (-113 for 0.75 Unit) at FanDuel
