With the play-in tournament approaching, the Portland Trail Blazers are struggling to even secure a spot. At 31-35, they currently rank 13th in the Western Conference, behind the tanking Utah Jazz and Oklahoma City Thunder. They’ll have a chance to right this ship tonight against the Philadelphia 76ers, but bettors looking for a sharp NBA player prop for Friday’s Trail Blazers-76ers game should tail the prediction below — DraftKings has left too much value on the Damian Lillard player prop markets. Make sure to check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays.
Best Trail Blazers-76ers NBA Player Prop | Damian Lillard
Damian Lillard O/U 3.5 Turnovers
With the Play-In approaching and the Blazers on the outside looking in, things are getting desperate in Portland. That desperation has shown up in the box score — the Blazers rank ninth in turnovers per game (14.7) over the last three games. Despite ranking 23rd in pace on the season, Portland ranks 12th through that three-game stretch. That’s come at a cost, as they rank a miserable 28th in offensive efficiency and 25th in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.7).
Damian Lillard has been part of the problem. He has turned the ball over at least four times in his last three starts and is averaging 3.6 turnovers per game since the All-Star Break. That marks a dramatic uptick from the 3.2 turnovers per game he averaged before the pause. Lillard has especially struggled on the road — he turns the ball over 0.39 more times per game in away contests. He also struggled against Eastern Conference opponents and turns the ball over 0.59 more times per game in those contests.
Philadelphia’s defense hasn’t excelled at generating turnovers this year but their slow pace may account for that. The 76ers play at the fifth-slowest pace this year but have still generated the 12th-most turnovers per game (14.6). They get 0.4 more turnovers at home than on the road. Their defense has forced a respectable 3.1 turnovers per game from opposing point guards, where Lillard has spent 100% of his minutes this year.
The Trail Blazers should keep playing a bit too aggressively as they look to rally in the Western Conference. Expect that to have consequences for Lillard in the turnover column. Bettors can get the over all the way up at +130 via DraftKings Sportsbook. The splits and recent trends suggest that this number should be closer to even, so bettors can find plenty of +EV at the current price. Readers who are yet to register at DraftKings can score $150 in bonus bets after winning a $5 moneyline wager!
Best Trail Blazers-76ers Player Prop: Damian Lillard Over 3.5 Turnovers (+130 for 0.5 Unit) at DraftKings
