The LeBron James-less Los Angeles Lakers will take on the Los Angeles Clippers in the late NBA on TNT slot tonight. The Lakers are trading as 9.5-point underdogs for this matchup. Both squads got a day off on Monday, but the Lakers will take the floor again on Thursday while the Clippers won’t have to play again until Friday. Let’s dive into the D’Angelo Russell player prop odds to identify the best bet for Tuesday’s Lakers-Clippers matchup. If you’re hungry for more action, check out the rest of our NBA player prop picks, our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos. Also, you can always check out my guide to NBA player prop betting as well!
D’Angelo Russell Player Prop: Best Lakers-Clippers Bet Today
Lakers-Clippers Player Prop Pick: D’Angelo Russell O/U 19.5 Points
Let’s start from a basic premise: sharp books post better numbers than public books. You’ll find D’Angelo Russell trading at -111 to stay under the 19.5 at FanDuel, but that same bet will cost you -137 at Pinnacle, a sharp, high-limit sportsbook. I had an inkling that tonight would be a good spot to fade Russell, and once I saw that split, I rushed to buy a share of the under.
Why is it a good time to fade Russell? Especially with LeBron out, this is the perfect time to sell high. Russell is averaging an absurd 27.2 points per game since his return to the starting lineup on January 13. He has done so on unsustainable shooting splits of 56/54/100. Russell is a career 43/37/79 shooter. He is a 48/41/78 shooter this season alone, which is better, but by nearly as much.
Sure, Russell is scorching hot — he often busts when LeBron sits. Although he is averaging 19.8 points per game without LeBron this year, that’s through a four-game sample, and it’s skewed massively by his 39-point showing versus the Minnesota Timberwolves a few nights ago. Russell had scored 11, 12 and 17 points without LeBron before that contest, good for a median performance of just 14.5.
Russell was similarly shaky without LeBron last year. In nine games, Russell averaged 20.2 points with a median of 18. He stayed under the 19.5 in six of those nine contests and has done so in three of four without LeBron this year, good for a hit rate of 69.2%. Because we’re getting this wager at -111, we’re buying an implied probability of 52.6% — far below this wager’s actual hit rate without LeBron.
The Los Angeles Clippers are a good team to fade Russell against for a handful of reasons. For one, they’re slow. The Clippers rank 27th in pace on the year (98.2) and 28th through the last seven games (96.5). For another, they’ve caused headaches for Russell in the recent past. He is averaging 18.3 points per game against them across a three-contest sample with a median of 15. His shooting splits (46/36/83) are similarly underwhelming. The Clippers have also kept opposing point guards under this number in recent games — over the last three, they held Spencer Dinwiddie to 16, Mike Conley to six and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to 19.
I bought the -111 at FanDuel, but that was this afternoon, and you may not find that number on the board later this evening. Make sure to check our NBA betting tools for the most recent price. If you can’t play this one for -111, consider using the 33% NBA profit boost available at BetMGM for this one. New customers there can get $158 in bonus bets after placing a $5 wager!
Bucks-Pistons Player Prop: D’Angelo Russell Under 19.5 Points -111 at FanDuel
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