We’re shopping odds again today looking to mine some value via market discrepancies between sportsbooks. For Monday, that has taken us to a massive misprice in the Trail Blazers-Rockets player prop market, specifically with Deandre Ayton player prop and coming to us from BetMGM. Ayton is questionable after missing the last two games, but this play still is popping too much to pass on BetMGM’s huge promo offer.
On top of its elite rewards program, BetMGM is giving new users a huge bet forgiveness: Have your first bet paid back in bonus bets if it loses — up to $1,500!
If you haven’t signed up with BetMGM yet, March Madness (and the run towards NBA postseason) is a perfect time for it. Go do that, earn your bonus and then put in this Deandre Ayton bet!
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Deandre Ayton Player Prop: Best Trail Blazers-Rockets Bet
Trail Blazers-Rockets Player Prop: Deandre Ayton O/U 21.5 Points
Yesterday we went after a spot where Shai Gilgeous-Alexander‘s scoring under had plus money at only one sportsbook, so we attacked it. Lo and behold, we won — but we’re not about one-pick sample sizes here at OddsShopper. We are about taking advice from our experts and exploiting value on the market.
We are gifted a nearly identical such play today, with Ayton’s points under plus money at BetMGM and nowhere else; the next closest is Caesars at -104. Plus odds on a bet with a 50% win rate or better make for value, and when that win rate is pushing 55%, it’s an absolute lock and load.
An even 9.0% +EV is close to the highest you’ll see in the OddsShopper model. True odds have Ayton under 21.5 at -120, while sharp book Pinnacle is -118. So truly, there is a decent amount of value across the industry — but we shop lines, don’t we? BetMGM’s line is by far the most favorable.
Ayton has been a new player of late. After a rough start to the year, he is averaging 24.5 points and 13.9 rebounds in March (seven games). But the Rockets are a top-10 defense over the last 10 games, due in large part to their best defender Jabari Smith getting a lot of run at center. He will match up with Ayton a good amount, and the surging Rockets are well positioned for us to cash in here.
Trail Blazers-Rockets Player Prop: Deandre Ayton Under 21.5 Points (+100 at BetMGM)
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