Few saw the Sacramento Kings as a legitimate threat in the Western Conference this year. I did, but that’s okay. The Kings will face the New York Knicks tonight, and I’m expecting Domantas Sabonis to step up a bit — the Knicks’ defense has been vulnerable to players like him. Bettors looking for a sharp NBA player prop for Thursday’s Knicks-Kings game should tail the prediction below — DraftKings has left too much value on the Domantas Sabonis player prop markets. Make sure to check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays.
Best Knicks-Kings NBA Player Prop | Domantas Sabonis
Domantas Sabonis O/U 0.5 3-Pointers
It’s always great when you can cash an NBA player prop with a single shot. That’s exactly what Domantas Sabonis can do for us with this one. Sabonis has averaged 0.4 made 3-pointers on 1.1 attempts per game this year, which is a downtick from the shooting he used to do in Indiana. However, tonight’s matchup with the New York Knicks makes for a great spot to target him as a perimeter shooter for two key reasons.
The Knicks, who start a traditional rim protector at the five in Mitchell Robinson, have struggled against big men who can shoot. Despite playing at the NBA’s fourth-slowest pace, the Knicks have allowed the ninth-most 3-pointers per game to centers this year (0.9). Things have gotten much worse lately — they have allowed the most 3-pointers to centers through the last seven games (2.2) by a sizeable margin. Most of the credit goes to Boston’s Al Horford, but even Washington’s Kristaps Porzingis shot 5-for-9 from beyond the arc against them. Sabonis even averages 0.63 3-pointers and 1.5 attempted 3-pointers per game against Robinson when Robinson plays at least 19 minutes.
A few splits also point to value on this prop. Sabonis averages 0.3 more 3-pointers per game at home than on the road. He makes 46.2% of his triples in Sacramento compared to only 25% outside of his home arena. He has also averaged 0.63 3-pointers per game on 43.8% shooting when playing on two days of rest, which he’ll do tonight after last playing on Monday. Additionally, the Kings are off until Saturday, so bettors need not worry about Sacramento limiting his minutes in advance of a back-to-back set.
The books can really only set the total at 0.5, but they have made a mistake by stacking the juice on the under. The over is available all the way up at +150 via DraftKings Sportsbook, slightly better than the +147 available at Pinnacle, a sharp book. Sabonis has been too much better at home and with some extra rest to justify that number, so head to DraftKings to lock in this play. Readers who are yet to register at DraftKings can score $150 in bonus bets after winning a $5 moneyline wager!
Best Knicks-Kings Player Prop: Domantas Sabonis Over 0.5 3-Pointers (+150 for 0.5 Unit) at DraftKings
