The NBA returns with what might be the final game of the Western Conference Finals. The Minnesota Timberwolves staved off elimination on the road and now host Game 5 tonight still down in the series but with life. Dallas is looking to close that door, preventing any of that life from growing — hoping to rely once again on Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. The dynamic duo in Dallas takes on one of the most electrifying players in the league in Anthony Edwards. Who steps up to help Edwards is the largest unanswered question. We have thoughts as we find the best NBA DraftKings Pick6 predictions today!
Here’s the lowdown on DraftKings Pick6: It is meant to mirror most pick’em sites, allowing you to build a two- to six-leg entry with larger payouts for more correct choices. However, the new product is peer-to-peer, meaning the strategy lies in beating other players in pre-selected tournaments rather than beating the house, making it important to be contrarian!
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DraftKings Pick6 Predictions Today — NBA Slate
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Mike Conley M/L Than 1.5 Steals
We jump right in the deep end with a steals play for Mike Conley. The Timberwolves point guard comes off a whopping four-steal game last time out, fueling interest in the more play. It may have helped bump this number, as Conley has hit two-plus steals in two of four games against Dallas. What we saw last game is more than likely an outlier; not many guys even on this defense are thieving at that rate, so there’s a good opportunity to take the opposite of the public favor, especially with the right number.
OddsShopper’s NBA pick’em tool works for Pick6 too, finding us an edge in the market. The implied odds on DraftKings Pick6 are -136, so by going less than 1.5 steals, we beat the true price of -143. This strategy is built to profit long term by finding holes in the market to exploit. This pick is +EV in that we found the best prices that also beats the true odds.
DraftKings Pick6 Prediction: Mike Conley LESS Than 1.5 Steals
Rudy Gobert M/L Than 2.5 Steals + Blocks
There’s been a slowdown in this combined stocks category for Rudy Gobert. After hitting more than 2.5 stocks in each of the first two games of this series, that number has dwindled to one combined in each of the past two games. In fact, he hasn’t registered one steal in either of those games, just one block — coming in Game 4. While he remains a threat on the glass and to score in the teens, Gobert is not erasing shots nor stealing at high enough of a clip to trust.
It’s not so much what the Mavericks are doing to slow Gobert down in these markets, so much as he experienced a nice boost early in the series. This number is probably best set at 1.5, but it is easy to react to when people see how effective he was at the onset against Dallas. That has cooled off, and we expect more of the same from Gobert tonight. Clearly winning or losing hasn’t impacted this result either, as the Timberwolves split the past two games — both leaving Gobert nearly empty in stocks.
DraftKings Pick6 Prediction: Rudy Gobert LESS Than 2.5 Steals + Blocks
Anthony Edwards M/L Than 14.5 Assists + Rebounds
Let’s be honest here: If I opened this column with less than 14.5 assists + rebounds for Edwards, you probably wouldn’t make it here — let alone come back tomorrow. I get it. He’s crushed this total in this series more often than not, and as a result this total continues to climb. Sure, Edwards is a triple-double threat in this series, as his passing has been effective and he’s all over the glass. But that’s playing above numbers we are accustomed to seeing Edwards produce, especially in this combo market.
We are essentially selling high here, as we may not get a higher number to fade – whether due to Minnesota being eliminated or Edwards falling below it and the projection dropping for Game 6. Here’s the good news: We have seen Edwards limited in this market, specifically in Game 2. Minnesota winning tonight does not hold any magical connection to him clearing this total, as he has been beyond effective in scoring a mass number of points while assists take the hit.
DraftKings Pick6 Prediction: Anthony Edwards LESS Than 14.5 Assists + Rebounds
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