The Eastern Conference’s play-in tournament field is set. We’ll have to wait until Sunday evening to know what’s going on in the Western Conference, but the sportsbooks have already opened the betting odds for next week’s action in the East. Let’s dig into the odds to see if any value jumps out early in the week and get to some Hawks-Heat and Bulls-Raptors predictions. Make sure to check out OddsShopper’s betting model for picks closer to tipoff!
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Early Look at NBA Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament Betting Odds
No. 8 Atlanta Hawks at No. 7 Miami Heat (-5.5)
Tuesday, April 11 at 7 p.m. ET
Just one year after making it to the Eastern Conference Finals, the Miami Heat struggled all season and finished a disappointing seventh. At 43-38, the Heat will host the first play-in tournament game on Tuesday for a chance to play the No. 2 Boston Celtics, the same team that eliminated them last season.
The Heat opened as a 5.5-point home favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook for Tuesday’s game. Their moneyline odds (-235) convert to a 70.1% implied win probability. FiveThirtyEight’s model lists the Heat as a 4-point favorite with a 65% chance of advancing to face the Celtics in the first round.
Miami struggled down the stretch but always puts up a fight when it matters. The Heat rank a concerning 22nd in net rating since the All-Star Break (-2.2), behind the 14th-ranked Atlanta Hawks (+2.2). However, the Heat also rank a convincing second in clutch net rating (+14.7), far ahead of the 29th-ranked Hawks (-15.9). The Heat rank third in clutch net rating since the All-Star Break (+29.8), still far ahead of the 25th-ranked Hawks (-22.4).
However, several concerning trends jump out for Miami. The Heat have gone a pathetic 17-32-2 against the spread (ATS) when facing Eastern Conference opposition. They are also an atrocious 13-25-2 ATS at home and are just 10-23-2 ATS as a home favorite. The Hawks are an unconvincing 18-21-1 ATS on the road and an equally concerning 21-29-1 ATS when facing Eastern Conference opponents, but the trends suggest Vegas has overrated the Heat all season.
Bettors interested in backing the Heat to win Tuesday’s game can take advantage of a special promotion at DraftKings Sportsbook. Readers yet to register at DraftKings can score $150 in bonus bets after placing a winning $5 moneyline wager!
Early Hawks-Heat Prediction: Heat ML
No. 10 Chicago Bulls at No. 9 Toronto Raptors (-5)
Wednesday, April 12 at 7 p.m. ET
Both of these teams fumbled in a major way down the stretch. The Chicago Bulls still had a chance to improve their seeding when they lost to the Atlanta Hawks on Tuesday. The same was true for the Toronto Raptors when they faltered against the Boston Celtics on Friday. Neither one of these teams appears destined for a long playoff run, especially since their best-case scenario is a date with the No. 1 Milwaukee Bucks.
The Raptors opened as a 5-point home favorite on DraftKings. Their moneyline odds (-220) convert to a 68.8% implied win probability. Unlike the Hawks-Heat game, FiveThirtyEight’s model agrees with the market almost completely. It also lists the Raptors as a 5-point favorite and gives them a 69% chance of winning.
Both the Raptors and Bulls have an experienced cast of veterans and were probably hoping for much better regular-season performances. The Bulls at least enter the play-in with more momentum than the Raptors, as Chicago ranks fourth in net rating since the All-Star Break (+4.9), well above 13th-ranked Toronto (+2.6). However, the Raptors hold an edge in the clutch. Toronto ranks 10th in clutch net rating (+3.2), slightly ahead of Chicago (0).
The betting trends point to some value on Toronto for Wednesday. The Raptors have gone a convincing 24-15-1 ATS at home, the NBA’s second-best such record behind only the Golden State Warriors. They successfully covered the spread in both of their home games against Chicago earlier in the season as well. The Bulls have gone only 18-20-2 ATS on the road this year.
One final stat to note for Wednesday’s Bulls-Raptors game involves Chicago’s star forward, DeMar DeRozan. DeRozan, a midrange shooting specialist, made 14 total field goals against the Raptors in three starts while averaging just 14 points per game, far below his season average (24.7). With Toronto’s defense ranked third in midrange shots allowed per game (3.7) and sixth since the All-Star Break (3.8), it might be smart to fade DeRozan on the player prop markets.
Early Bulls-Raptors Prediction: Raptors -5 & DeRozan Points Under
