Good Lord, tonight’s game between the Milwaukee Bucks and Brooklyn Nets is going to be a mess. The Nets have ruled out Spencer Dinwiddie, Cameron Johnson and Nicolas Claxton. The Bucks have listed Giannis Antetokounmpo as questionable with right calf and injury management tags. Let’s dive into the most recent Giannis Antetokounmpo injury update for Wednesday to discuss his odds of playing and a player prop pick. If you’re hungry for more action, check out our NBA player prop bets, our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos!
Giannis Antetokounmpo Injury Update: Is Milwaukee’s Star Playing Tonight?
Is Giannis Antetokounmpo Playing for the Milwaukee Bucks Tonight?
The Milwaukee Bucks are listing superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo as questionable with tags for both right calf soreness and injury management. Giannis just played 39 minutes against the New York Knicks on Christmas and has missed just one game all year.
The Bucks aren’t in an especially tough part of their schedule — they last played on Monday and won’t play again until Friday. They’ll even get another two days off after Friday’s game against the Indiana Pacers.
Still, the fact Giannis Antetokounmpo has picked up an “injury management” tag is intriguing because of the superstar’s playing history around the holidays.
Last year, the Bucks didn’t give Giannis a day off right after Christmas but did give him New Year’s Day off. The year before, Giannis was returning from a multi-game absence on Christmas Day. Two years before that (the 2020-21 season began on Christmas), the Bucks gave Giannis two days off after Christmas.
The betting markets have reacted to the injury news oddly. The Bucks opened as three-point road favorites but saw their advantage bid down to two before the Nets ruled out three of their starters, Nicolas Claxton, Spencer Dinwiddie and Cameron Johnson. Now the Bucks are trading as a 7.5-point favorite.
The player prop markets usually offer some more meaningful insight into the books’ expectations for an injured player, and they point — albeit slightly — to Giannis playing tonight. Damian Lillard is trading at 27.5 on the points market, which is ever so slightly above his season average (26.2). Lillard scored 37 in his lone game without Giannis. Brook Lopez is trading at 14.5. Lopez has averaged 14.8 points per game with the Bucks since 2021-22, but that number jumps to 17.8 when Giannis sits.
Damian Lillard Player Prop Pick
I trust Damian Lillard for a big night this evening regardless of whether Giannis is available, but his absence would be a big help. Lillard has gone for 28-plus points in 12 of his 28 starts with the Bucks. He scored only 21 in a previous road trip to Brooklyn, but that was just the sixth game of the year, and the Nets still had Ben Simmons.
Brooklyn’s backcourt defense has regressed massively without Simmons. It will regress even more without Spencer Dinwiddie. The Nets will have to lean on Cam Thomas, which is a problem because their defensive rating is 8.7 points per 100 possessions worse with him on the floor than off it. The Nets are already giving up the third-most points per game to point guards (26.7) and the most 3-pointers to them (3.9). They have allowed 29.8 points per game to point guards over the last 15 and 32 over the last seven.
Damian Lillard Player Prop Pick: Over 27.5 Points -110 at BetMGM
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