If I told you that the Philadelphia 76ers and Miami Heat would square off in a playoff series before the season started, you probably would’ve believed me. But would you have believed me if I told you they would square off in a play-in tournament game? I doubt it, but that’s what we’ve got. Let’s dive into the Heat-76ers odds as we get into our advanced stats-driver preview and make a pick with positive expected value (+EV). If you’re hungry for more NBA content, check out our full play-in tournament preview, our guide to +EV NBA betting or our NBA betting model’s picks.
Heat-76ers Odds, Advanced Stats Preview & +EV Pick
Heat-76ers Odds
Odds via BetMGM
MIA ML: +170 | PHI ML: -210
MIA +4.5: -105 | PHI -4.5: -115
Over 207.5: -115 | Under 207.5: -105
Live Heat-76ers odds
Heat-76ers Preview & +EV Pick
This is a play-in game? The No. 8 Miami Heat will visit the No. 7 Philadelphia 76ers in a battle of two teams we’ve seen last at least two rounds with frequency in recent history. The injury to Joel Embiid was costly in the regular season, but with him back, the 76ers will look to make a run — and I think they can do it.
I have some serious concerns with the Heat. Don’t just pencil them in for another strong postseason run as we saw from them last year — also, don’t forget that they lost a home play-in game to the Atlanta Hawks and were trailing the Chicago Bulls with less than two minutes to go in last year’s play-in finale.
This year, the Heat struggled in the clutch and produced far less impressive lineup splits than the 76ers. Miami ranked a brutal 28th in clutch net rating this season (-13.5), largely due to a brutal offensive rating of just 100. The 76ers, despite playing without multiple starters for much of the year, ranked 11th (+4.7).
Lineup splits also raise some concerns for Miami. The Heat are a fluid team, but their two three-player lineups with more than 500 minutes on the floor were okay. Those combos, Duncan Robinson–Jaime Jaquez–Bam Adebayo (+4.6) and Terry Rozier–Jimmy Butler-Adebayo (+4.5) trail the 76ers’ top combos, Tyrese Maxey–De’Anthony Melton–Joel Embiid (+16.6) and Melton-Tobias Harris-Embiid (+15.2) by considerable margins.
Philadelphia has six roster combos with 500-plus minutes and better net ratings than Miami’s two lineups. Even if we reduce the minutes threshold to 350, the picture isn’t much better: Butler-Jaquez-Kevin Love (+18) is their best one, but that’s not likely a lineup of which we’ll see much. Their next-best choice is Butler-Nikola Jovic-Adebayo (+9.3).
In short: the playoff Heat were a real problem last year, but they were a real problem because of 3-point variance. This year’s team has been inefficient in the clutch offensively (their true shooting percentage has dropped by 9.3%!), and the 76ers with Embiid should be too tough for them to overcome.
Warriors-Kings EV Pick: Philadelphia -4.5 -115 at BetMGM
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