The New Orleans Pelicans will take on the fast-paced Sacramento Kings tonight. Sacramento’s games have often devolved into high-scoring track meets lately, and Monday’s game is unlikely to deviate from that trend. Bettors looking for a high-value NBA player prop for tonight’s Pelicans-Kings game should tail the prediction below — DraftKings has left a bit too much value on the Herbert Jones player prop markets. Make sure to check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays.
Best Pelicans-Kings NBA Player Prop | Herbert Jones
Herbert Jones O/U 0.5 3-Pointers
The New Orleans Pelicans will remain shorthanded in the frontcourt tonight. Zion Williamson is out with a hamstring strain and Larry Nance Jr. is out with a left ankle sprain. Jonas Valanciunas hasn’t played in several games and is questionable with a left calf contusion. All of those factors have led to an increase in playing time for Herbert Jones, and he should see plenty of action tonight in Sacramento.
The Kings have struggled to stop opposing shooters from the corner, especially lately. They have allowed the 16th-most corner 3’s per game (3.4) on 38.6% shooting this year. That isn’t super remarkable, but through the last seven games, they have allowed the most corner 3’s per game (5.8) on 50.4% shooting. That number is a massive outlier — the next-worst Atlanta Hawks have allowed only 4.4 corner 3’s per game. The Kings have a wider gap over the second-worst Hawks than the Hawks have over the 12-best Detroit Pistons (3).
Although Sacramento’s corner defense will likely regress to the mean at some point, Jones has done enough damage from the corner to warrant backing him on this NBA player prop market. Jones ranks second on the team in corner 3’s attempted per game (1.2). Corner shots account for almost half of his total 3-point attempts. Although he is shooting only 28.3% from 3-point range this year, he has made 34.8% of his attempts from the right corner. Sacramento has allowed 3.1 right corner 3’s per game through the last seven games on 51.2% shooting.
The total for this prop (0.5) is set correctly. The books have the juice slightly stacked in favor of the over, but they haven’t stacked it by enough. Stokastic’s projections have Jones hitting 0.8 3-pointers tonight. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the over priced at -127, better than the -125 available at DraftKings Sportsbook. Readers yet to register at DraftKings can score $150 in bonus bets with a $5 moneyline wager!
Best Pelicans-Kings Player Prop: Herbert Jones Over 0.5 3-Pointers (-125 for 0.5 Unit) via DraftKings
