The Milwaukee Bucks will take on the Indiana Pacers in an elimination game this evening. The Pacers have a 3-2 series lead, and, as the No. 6 seed, will host tonight’s Game 6. Indiana is coming off a tough road loss to Milwaukee’s reserves in Game 5, but because their division rivals went up early, the Pacers were able to rest their starters down the stretch. Milwaukee stayed aggressive, leaving Khris Middleton out there for 40 and Bobby Portis for 39. So how should you bet on tonight’s Bucks-Pacers Game 6, and are Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard playing tonight? Let’s answer those questions and more.
How to Bet Bucks-Pacers Game 6: Are Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard Playing Tonight?
Are Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard Playing Tonight?
Before getting your action down on Bucks-Pacers Game 6, you’ve got to have some idea of whether Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard are playing tonight. Adrian Wojnarowski reported this morning that both Antetokounmpo and Lillard are both “working to try and make a return” — but what does that really mean?
First, let’s consider how the sports betting market reacted. The Pacers were trading at moneyline odds of between -325 and -375 before the vintage Woj Bomb. Afterward, the markets closed, and the Pacers’ odds quickly dropped to the -200 to -225 range before bouncing back to -225 to -250 range.
So how am I interpreting that line movement? It suggests the Bucks picked up some steam before the markets were shut down, but then the Pacers drew some action once the market reopened before we reached a sort of equilibrium between -225 (69%) and -250 (71%).
The moneyline movement, while a big drop from the -350 (77.8%) this morning, is not as much movement as we would’ve seen if the market truly believed both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard were sure things to play without limitations.
Subsequent news has clarified the picture somewhat. The Bucks upgraded Lillard to questionable on the 12:30 p.m. ET injury report, but they did not give Antetokounmpo the same upgrade. No quotes from head coach Doc Rivers have entered the narrative yet, and, with no formal shootaround on schedule, we likely won’t hear from him until 5 p.m. ET.
How to Bet Bucks-Pacers Game 6
So how should you bet Bucks-Pacers Game 6? It’s a tricky question. It’s probably best to be patient, as we’ll likely get something much more definitive from Doc Rivers later in the afternoon. But if you’re looking to place a speculative wager before we get more information, let’s dive into (1) how I’m interpreting Lillard and Antetokounmpo’s statuses and (2) how I’m handicapping the game in each scenario.
Projecting Lillard and Antetokounmpo
First, Lillard — no sportsbook is taking action on his player props, but all sportsbooks have adjusted the lines for Khris Middleton and company to account for the possibility of his return. Middleton’s points prop was trading at 26.5 this morning but is down to 23.5, a small adjustment that suggests at least one of Milwaukee’s other stars will play. I suspect we’ll get Lillard for between 24 and 36 minutes this evening, but we probably won’t get Giannis for any.
Second, Antetokounmpo — despite the optimism expressed in Woj’s Tweet this morning, nothing has come out that suggests he’ll play. There isn’t much beyond noise surrounding his potential return, and the line movement back in Indiana’s favor after the initial market closure suggests there isn’t serious optimism for Giannis’ return. Middleton’s points prop moving by just three also supports that conclusion.
That said, Stokastic’s NBA projections have Lillard projected for 35 minutes and Antetokounmpo projected for 33. On Twitter, NBA DFS Player Predictions adjusted Antetokounmpo’s probability of playing from 0% to 12%. Lillard’s jumped much more significantly from 0% to 38%.
Handicapping Bucks-Pacers Game 6
If Antetokounmpo and Lillard were healthy, I’d have the Bucks as either a narrow road favorite or as a pick’em. But they’re not, and even if they’re active, we can expect some limitations. Dame-and-Giannis Bucks were incredibly clutch this regular season, scoring the fifth-best clutch net rating (+15.1) and the sixth-best since the All-Star Break (+15.3); meanwhile, the Pacers ranked 15th (+1.8) and 29th (-23.5), respectively.
Those numbers immediately point to considerable value on Milwaukee, but again, we must adjust for the injuries to Giannis and Lillard. In the postseason, Indiana has the advantage in clutch net rating at +13.2. Neither Game 4 and Game 5 went into the clutch, so that +13.2 clutch net rating is based on a 10-minute sample from Indiana’s Game 3 win in which Lillard played 45 minutes.
Looking at lineup data, Milwaukee’s best three-man lineup combo of Lillard-Middleton-Antetokounmpo (+17.5) led the way in the regular season, ahead of Lillard-Connaughton-Beasley (+13.6). The next-best three-man combo without Antetokounmpo was Lillard-Beasley-Middleton (+9.4).
In the postseason, Milwaukee’s best combo is Beverley-Middleton-Portis (+13.9). Every Lillard combo with substantial minutes clocked in at -2.3 or worse. We haven’t seen much of the Lillard-Connaughton-Beasley combo, but the 10 minutes of the Lillard-Beasley-Middleton combo have been exactly +0.
The Pacers’ lineup data is somewhat discouraging. Indiana’s best now-available lineup in the regular season (I had to filter out ones with Bruce Brown and Buddy Hield) was Toppin-Nesmith-Turner (+18.1). The best lineup combo with Haliburton and Siakam on the floor was Haliburton-Siakam-Nesmith (+8.4), which is good, and that same lineup is +21 in the playoffs over 127 minutes.
The last note for this game is the setting. We’re in Indianapolis for this one, and it’s Indiana’s best chance to close out the series, especially with Lillard and Antetokounmpo steadily trending in the right direction. Indiana’s clutch net rating at home ranked 12th on the year (+4.1) and 21st after the All-Star Break (-11.5). Milwaukee’s clutch net rating on the road ranked 14th (+5.7) and 10th post-All-Star Break (+23.6). Those numbers correspond to Indiana going 23-18-2 ATS at home and Milwaukee going 17-25 ATS on the road.
Let’s not forget that these teams met five times in the regular season. The Pacers went 4-1. Lillard missed the first meeting between these teams, a two-point home win for Indiana. Milwaukee’s lone win came at home and required Antetokounmpo to score 64 points in 37 minutes.
I’m on the Pacers tonight. Buy the dip and back them to cover the 6 — the number will only go up once Giannis is officially ruled out and if a minutes restriction for Lillard is announced.
Bucks-Pacers Bet for Game 6: Pacers -6 -115 or Better
