The Los Angeles Lakers listed LeBron James as doubtful on the injury report ahead of Tuesday night’s action, but we’ve since got definitive news about his status. So is LeBron James playing tonight? Nope! However, his absence creates an opportunity to buy this D’Angelo Russell player prop for tonight’s Lakers-Bucks game as a +EV wager. You can access all of our model’s +EV wagers. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools (and our guide to using them) or today’s NBA player prop picks.
Is LeBron James Playing Tonight? | Lakers-Bucks Player Prop
Is LeBron James Playing Tonight? | Lakers-Bucks Player Prop
Since we know LeBron James is not playing tonight (he is out with an ankle injury), I’m excited about fading D’Angelo Russell. The veteran guard has stepped up without his superstar teammate this season to the tune of 21.7 points per game, but he only ever went over this number in three of nine contests without him (33.3%), yet we can buy his under for the friendly price of -105 (51.2%) on DraftKings. That number is beating the market by a considerable margin, just look at this screenshot from our model:
Russell exploded for 44 points versus the Bucks when LeBron was sidelined earlier this month, so the public books are eager to make a quick buck off over bettors by inflating his total.
The Lakers were at home for Russell’s 44-point explosion, but they’re on the road tonight. Russell’s points per game average dips from 19.2 at home to 16.6 on the road this year. That’s despite him playing seven road games without LeBron.
We can tell the under is a sharp bet because Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the under for the stingy price of -125 (55.6%). That means we’re scoring a free 4.4% of implied probability relative to that book.
Bets like this one, over a large enough sample size, can dramatically transform your bankroll (they transformed mine!). From the start of the season to the All-Star Break, our model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip.
If you haven’t signed up for OddsShopper Premium, you can do so for $11.96 this week with promo code “ISIROIS”. A typical weekly subscription costs $14.95, so if you’ve ever wanted to try out our +EV betting tools, now’s the time.
Best Lakers-Bucks Player Prop: D’Angelo Russell Under 20.5 Points -105 at DraftKings
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