Each installment of Isaiah’s Methods & Opinions (IMO) is brought to you by No House Advantage, a cutting-edge daily fantasy site that allows users to risk little and win big in over 30 states. Bet VS. THE HOUSE to win up to 21x your money or play in PICK’EM CONTESTS against other users! New players can secure up to a $100 deposit match by registering with No House Advantage today! This week’s column will focus on usage rate and one player likely to move at the upcoming NBA trade deadline: O.G. Anunoby.
The Super Bowl may loom large on bettors’ minds at the moment, but it’s still two weeks away. Those looking for a payout sooner should turn their focus to the NBA and college basketball — especially with the NBA trade deadline on Feb. 9. I’ll be here every Monday for another installment Isaiah’s Methods & Opinions (IMO)! Twice each week, you can trust me to break down the betting trends and sports news that will give you an edge on the sportsbooks.
No sports bettor can hit every bet, but the key to profitable sports gambling is to develop a successful process — or method — for identifying sharp wagers. It’s the application of sharp opinions to that method that separates the wheat from the chaff in the sports gambling world. If your priors are wrong, you’ll end up sweating more bets than you must.
This column will help bettors develop sharp methods and come to well-informed opinions.
The legal gambling age is 21+ in most states. Gambling Problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Isaiah’s Methods: Projecting a Player’s Usage Rate | Sponsored by No House Advantage
Absurd statlines have almost become commonplace in the NBA this year. A few weeks ago, Cleveland’s Donovan Mitchell went for 71 points against the Chicago Bulls. Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo has exploded for 50-plus points twice in 2023 alone. Philadelphia’s Joel Embiid has recorded two 50-plus point showings this year and just went for 47 against the Denver Nuggets over the weekend. Luka Doncic went for 60 against the New York Knicks and has another two 50-plus games to his name this year.
Although those monster numbers may seem unpredictable, NBA bettors have a multitude of statistical tools at their disposal that can help them identify when a player is likelier to pop off. Last week’s column discussed matchups, which are often most helpful for finding value for role players. This week’s column turns to usage rate, which can help you identify the superstar players likeliest to fly past their betting totals.
Few statistics capture more about a player’s role on their team than usage rate. The metric calculates the percentage of a team’s possessions with a given player on the floor that end in a shot attempt, free-throw attempt or turnover by that player. Players with massive usage rates account for most of their team’s scoring and have the highest potential to explode for a monster showing on any given slate.
Three of the four players mentioned above lead the NBA in usage rate: Embiid (37.9%) and Antetokounmpo (37.4%) and Doncic (37.3%). So then why does Donovan Mitchell, who ranks 14th in the metric (30.6%), lead the NBA in single-game scoring this year?
While some teams employ a singular superstar to carry their offense, others have their star players share the ball. That’s what the Cleveland Cavaliers have done this season. Mitchell ranks 14th in usage rate because his teammate, point guard Darius Garland, ranks 44th (26.6%). Embiid, Antetokounmpo and Doncic all play without teammates ranked inside the top 50.
Usage rate offers bettors a bevy of insights when read in conjunction with a team’s injury report. If, say, Embiid has to sit, the 76ers have a 37.9%-sized hole in their offense for the minutes Embiid would have played. Backing standard player props at No House Advantage or teased-up overs for the next-best players in usage rate, Tyrese Maxey (25.4%) and James Harden (24.7%), could play dividends if the books don’t adjust enough.
A lower-usage player missing time can also provide meaningful insight, and Mitchell’s monster performance is an excellent example. The Cavaliers were without 26.6% of their typical offensive production with Garland sidelined. Cleveland adjusted by inserting Caris LeVert, a low-volume wing who ranks 166th in usage rate (19.2%), into the starting lineup. The 7.4-percentage point difference between them led Mitchell’s usage rate to tick up from 30.6% to a whopping 40.9%. LeVert’s (18.8%) stayed roughly the same.
Usage rate allows bettors to quantify the offensive significance of a player’s presence and absence. For that reason, bettors looking to profit off the recent explosion of elite individual performances must pay careful attention to it. Low-usage players will rarely be worth targeting for ladder bets barring a smash-spot matchup — or an injury. Conversely, high-usage players can pop off on any given night, and finding the right matchup or narrative can help you score a massive payout.
The legal gambling age is 21+ in most states. Gambling Problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Isaiah’s Opinions: What is O.G. Anunoby Worth, and Where Will He End Up?
The media hasn’t paid much attention to the Toronto Raptors or O.G. Anunoby this year, but the NBA’s front offices are abuzz with the wing on the trade block. Rightfully so: the wing has flashed an elite defensive skillset that could help turn a playoff team into a contender. With the Feb. 9 trade deadline fast approaching, any deal will have to come together soon.
Anunoby agreed to a four-year, $72 million contract with the Raptors that began in the 2021-22 season. He has a player option for the fourth year. Whoever makes a move for Anunoby — if the Raptors move on from him — would suffer a cap hit of just under $20 million for 2023-24 and 2024-25, should he take his player option.
Few wing defenders are as versatile as Anunoby. The 25-year-old stands 6-foot-7 and weighs 230 pounds, giving him a frame he can use to defend one through four, sometimes even five. His defensive RAPTOR rating (+2) ranks 42nd despite the Raptors ranking an unimpressive 18th in defensive efficiency (113.7). He leads Toronto in the metric, and the Raptors play 1.5 points per 100 possessions more efficiently on defense with him on the floor than without him. It’s usually sharp to fade the players who Anunoby lines up against on the NBA player prop markets, especially at No House Advantage.
But while Anunoby plays excellent defense, he struggles on offense. He owns a negative offensive RAPTOR rating (-1.5) this year and shooting splits of 47-37-73 for his career. He has made strides from the charity stripe, from where he has shot 82% this year, but hasn’t improved his field-goal percentage or 3-point percentage since his rookie season. He profiles as a slightly worse Mikal Bridges, whose career shooting splits of 50-38-84 make him a more valuable asset. Anunoby’s shooting efficiency more closely mirrors that of Harrison Barnes (46-38-80).
According to the Athletic, the New York Knicks and Phoenix Suns have shown an interest in acquiring O.G. Anunoby from Toronto. Neither destination is a perfect landing spot. While the Knicks need help at wing and on defense, they rank seventh in the Eastern Conference and are more than a defensive specialist away from an NBA Finals appearance. Their core of Jalen Brunson, Julius Randle and R.J. Barrett probably wouldn’t beat the healthy Boston Celtics, Brooklyn Nets, Philadelphia 76ers, Cleveland Cavaliers or Milwaukee Bucks in a seven-game series.
The Suns have the opposite problem: they are probably one piece away but already have a surplus of wing talent. Devin Booker, Mikal Bridges and Cameron Johnson occupy the starting spots at two through four. Torrey Craig and Landry Shamet offer valuable depth on lower-end salaries. Anunoby might be a long-term replacement for Johnson that the Suns could acquire in a deal involving Jae Crowder, for whom they are yet to find a trade partner, but he probably doesn’t offer enough immediate positional value to get them back to the NBA Finals this year.
Whichever team ends up with Anunoby will get a solid defensive specialist who can seriously limit an opposing offensive weapon in the playoffs. Time will tell if Anunoby’s services are enough to get either of his mid-pack suitors over the hump, but his flaws on offense and the surplus of NBA teams loaded with superstars in the Eastern Conference render such an outcome unlikely.
The legal gambling age is 21+ in most states. Gambling Problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
