The Detroit Pistons and Milwaukee Bucks will kick off Saturday’s NBA slate at 3 p.m. ET in Michigan. The Pistons have managed not to start another embarrassing losing streak but are still just 4-37 this year, while the Bucks are sitting pretty at 28-13. This one is expected to get out of hand quickly, as Milwaukee is a 13-point favorite. Let’s dive into the Jalen Duren player prop odds to identify the best bet for Saturday’s Bucks-Pistons matchup. If you’re hungry for more action, check out the rest of our NBA player prop picks, our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos. Also, you can always check out my guide to NBA player prop betting as well!
Jalen Duren Player Prop: Best Bucks-Pistons Bet Today
Bucks-Pistons Player Prop Pick: Jalen Duren O/U 15.5 Points
The Detroit Pistons have already ruled out a number of their key pieces, including star guard Cade Cunningham and forward Isaiah Stewart. Because the Pistons are so pressed for depth, I’m backing Jalen Duren to do some damage on offense, especially because he’ll take on a surprisingly vulnerable Milwaukee frontcourt.
Giannis Antetokounmpo may have won Defensive Player of the Year for his performance in the 2019-20 season, but this year’s Bucks don’t look much like that team. Milwaukee ranks just 22nd in defensive rating on the year (116.8) and 26th through the last seven games (120.9).
So what’s been ailing the Bucks of late? Earlier in the year it was perimeter shooting, but now it’s interior scoring. Milwaukee now ranks 25th in points allowed in the paint per game (54.3) and 29th over the last 15 games (58.9).
Further, the Bucks allowed the fourth-most points per game to centers through that stretch (25.8) and the sixth-most through the last seven (26). That bodes excellently for Duren this afternoon.
All kinds of bigs have cooked Milwaukee. Jarrett Allen dropped 30 on them this Wednesday. Domantas Sabonis scored 21 last Sunday. Jonathan Kuminga scored 28 the day before that game. Although Duren doesn’t have a perimeter shot, he cooks in the restricted area, leading the Pistons in shots made (5.2) and attempted (7.1) with a 73.4% conversion rate.
Duren is no stranger to exploiting Milwaukee’s interior defense, and he should get plenty of chances to do so with Stewart out. Across three appearances, Duren is averaging 17.3 points per game against Milwaukee, going over the 15.5 twice. In eight games without Stewart this year, Duren is averaging 16.5 points, clearing the 15.5 five times. Likewise, in five games without Cunningham, Duren is averaging 17.6 points while clearing the 15.5 four times.
The biggest risk to this play is foul trouble. Milwaukee ranks 10th in opponent fouls per game (20.2), but Duren likely won’t have to worry about offensive fouls, as the Bucks rank 28th in charges drawn per game (0.24). I locked this one in at -110, but there’s still some value for you to exploit on the -115 at BetMGM, especially since new customers there can get $158 in bonus bets after placing a $5 wager!
Bucks-Pistons Player Prop: Jalen Duren Over 15.5 Points -115 at BetMGM
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