Jonathan Kuminga Player Prop: Best Warriors-Magic Bet (March 27)

This Jonathan Kuminga player prop had marginal positive expected value (+EV) in the model this morning, but it has more value for non-market-based reasons. Kuminga and the Golden State Warriors are in a must-win situation but are playing on the wrong end of a back-to-back set, drawing a tough road matchup with the Orlando Magic. Orlando is favored by four.

Despite Golden State’s dire straits, we’re fading Kuminga on the points market by backing him to stay under 16.5. It’s a number he was clearing with ease up until a few weeks ago, but his relatively limited bag of tricks has caught up to him. Kuminga is a talented interior scorer, but that’s pretty much all he’s doing — 71% of his field goal attempts this year have come in the paint.

Kuminga’s reliance on interior scoring is a problem versus this Orlando defense. The Magic rank third in defensive rating on the year (110.9) but are first since the All-Star Break (106.8). That corresponds to an improvement in interior defense — Orlando ranks eighth in points allowed in the paint per game on the year (47.7) but is fourth since the All-Star Break (44.1).