Julius Randle Player Prop: Best Heat-Knicks Bet (January 27)

Death, taxes and Julius Randle struggling against the New York Knicks. The last time Randle played the Heat, he scored 13 points in 35 minutes with shooting splits of 42/25/100. Randle has cleared the 24-point threshold in just three of his 12 starts against the Heat since joining the Knicks.

And it’s not just like Randle has barely missed the 24-point mark a few times — overall, Randle scored 15 points or fewer in seven of those 12 matchups, including each of his last three. Home-court advantage hasn’t even helped him, as his most recent two starts versus the Heat were both in Madison Square Garden.

Miami’s defense can easily limit opposing top options, especially when they are primarily interior scorers. Randle takes 59.8% of his field goals in the paint, but Miami ranks 10th in points in the paint allowed per game (47.6) and second over the last seven games (42.6).

Miami has proven especially capable against power forwards, too. The Heat rank 12th in points allowed per game to power forwards this year (23), second through the last 15 games (20.8) and fourth through the last seven (20). They have held Paolo Banchero to 20 and Jaren Jackson Jr. to 15 this week.

Randle’s recent games have been pretty hit-or-miss, which puts him in a rough spot for this matchup. He is coming off a 17-point showing versus the Denver Nuggets and has cleared the 24-point mark just twice in his last five games. Randle has stayed under the 20-point mark twice through that span as well.