We’re shopping odds again today looking to mine some value via market discrepancies between sportsbooks. For Monday, that has taken us to a massive misprice in the Mavericks-Kings player prop market, specifically with Keegan Murray player prop and coming to us with bet365’s multiple promo offers.
Bet365 is the only book that is giving new users TWO great offers: Bet $5 and get $150 in bonus bets or a $1,000 safety net!
If you haven’t signed up with bet365 yet, March Madness (and the run towards NBA postseason) is a perfect time for it. Go do that, earn your bonus and then put in this Keegan Murray bet!
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Keegan Murray Player Prop: Best Mavericks-Kings Bet
Mavericks-Kings Player Prop: Keegan Murray O/U 2.5 3-Pointers
I sincerely apologize if you do not live in an active bet365 state — not because I feel like I’ve lapsed with this pick, but rather because bet365 offers great odds night in and night out. Really we feel sorry for you that you don’t get to experience that.
Fortunately, you also have BetMGM, and to a lesser degree Caesars, to get you good odds since BetMGM and bet365 are aligned. But moving forward, maybe move to one of the bet365 states? Just spitballing here …
OddsShopper has True Odds for Murray’s 3’s under at plus money (+104), so this isn’t as much of an easy lock as some of our other more recent props. Line shopping is going to be much more important tonight (thanks, OddsShopper Premium!) — though, as you know, it’s always vital to maximizing value.
Sharp book Pinnacle has Murray under 2.5 3’s at -103, but most other books are in plus money. Bet365 and BetMGM are leading the pack at +115, however, so they are over 5% +EV compared to the True Odds.
The struggle you might have here is with the expected win rate of sub-50%. That’s understandable since no one loves seeing a bet have a greater chance of losing than winning. Murray is also coming off back-to-back overs. Before that, however, he had four straight unders while playing 29-plus minutes in each.
If you ask me, that’s worth grabbing some strong plus money in an essentially neutral pace matchup with the Mavericks — and OddsShopper agrees, naming this the No. 1 prop on the board as of this afternoon.
Mavericks-Kings Player Prop: Keegan Murray Under 2.5 3-Pointers (+115 at bet365)
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