Kevin Durant Player Prop: Best Suns-Jazz Bet (Nov. 17)

Kevin Durant has a difficult task ahead of him tonight — at least on the boards. He takes on a Utah Jazz team that has allowed the second-fewest total rebounds to its opponents (49.1), largely a function of the team’s 53.3% rebound rate, which ranks second. Although the injury to center Walker Kessler has complicated things, the Jazz still own a team rebound rate of 53.4% with him off the floor.

Standout rebounders for the Jazz include Lauri Markkanen, who leads the team in rebounds per game (8.6) with a rebound rate of 12.2%; Kelly Olynyk, who ranks fourth in rebounds per game (6) but with a steadier rebound rate (14.4%); and John Collins, who ranks second in rebounds per game (8.2) and also owns a higher rebound rate than Markkanen (12.6%).

Durant trails the notable Utah players in almost every metric. He leads Olynyk in rebounds per game (7) but owns a much less impressive rebound rate (9.7). Durant averages only 10.5 rebound chances per game, so he is currently converting 66.7% of the time. He averaged 10.3 rebound chances per game last year and converted less often (65%), so some regression could be in the cards.

Importantly, our NBA betting tools have identified this Kevin Durant prop as one worth targeting. The tools index odds across the betting market, adjust for hold and book sharpness, and spit out “true odds,” or a fair price for each wager. The under owns “true odds” of -140 but is going for -130 at PointsBet and -135 at DraftKings.