Anybody who called the teams who did well in the NBA bubble fraudulent has some crow to eat. This year’s Eastern and Western Conference Finals are exact rematches of what we saw in 2020. In the West, that means the Los Angeles Lakers will take on the Denver Nuggets — but this time, the Nuggets will have home-court advantage. Need more Lakers-Nuggets series betting odds, picks and predictions for the Western Conference Finals? Check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays, including our Parlay Builder!
Lakers-Nuggets Series Odds, Picks & Predictions
Lakers-Nuggets Series Betting Odds
Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Los Angeles Lakers: +130 | Denver Nuggets: -155
Los Angeles Lakers +1.5: -185 | Denver Nuggets -1.5: +150
Over 5.5 Games: -210 | Under 5.5 Games: +170
Lakers-Nuggets Series Analysis & Predictions
Most analysts had written the Los Angeles Lakers off after their terrible start to the season. However, the team made some exceptional moves at the trade deadline, and some (including me) saw their resurgence coming from a mile away. They now have a shot at another NBA Finals appearance if they can cut through Nikola Jokic and company. Let’s dive into the factors that I think will determine this series.
Denver Has Been Dominant at Home
A playoff series doesn’t begin until a team wins on the road. This NBA maxim carries some extra meaning for this year’s Western Conference Finals. The Denver Nuggets are an NBA-best 40-7 at home this year and have won their home games by an average margin of 10.3 points. Three of their seven home losses came without Nikola Jokic on the floor.
The Lakers beat the Nuggets twice in L.A. this year but lost both of their games in Denver by double-digit margins. LeBron James has played six games in Denver with the Lakers and has just two wins to his name, both of which came in the 2019-20 season before the COVID-19 pandemic. James is yet to win a game in Ball Arena since.
Denver Has Controlled the Glass in the Playoffs
The Lakers dominated the Memphis Grizzlies on the glass but struggled slightly against the small-ball Golden State Warriors. But the Denver Nuggets have had no trouble on the glass whatsoever — they own an NBA-best team rebound rate of 54.1% in the playoffs, up from the fourth-best 51.4% they recorded in the regular season.
Denver’s ability to control the glass has helped the team lead all playoff teams in second-chance points allowed (9.1). The Lakers haven’t relied on extra chances in the postseason, but they rank seventh in second-chance points per game (14.2), so it’s a meaningful part of their offense.
Perimeter Shooting Could Define the Series
Because neither of these teams specializes in long-distance shooting, an impressive run from beyond the arc for either side could have dramatic consequences. The Nuggets rank an impressive second among playoff teams in 3-point conversion rate (37.9%) but only 10th in 3-pointers made per game (11.3). They rank 15th in the share of team field goal attempts that come from beyond the arc (33.7%).
In contrast, the Lakers rank a lowly 11th in 3-point conversion rate (33.1%) but their 13th-place ranking in 3-pointers made per game (10.4) doesn’t trail the Nuggets by much. The Lakers even outrank the Nuggets in the share of team field goal attempts that have come from beyond the arc (35.7%) — albeit by one position and only two percentage points. However, both teams’ limited volume of perimeter shots would add significance to either team finding an edge from beyond the arc.
Interior Scoring (and Defense) Will Define the Series
This series will likely come down to both interior scoring and defense. The Nuggets rank second among playoff teams in the percentage of their points that have come in the paint (46.3%). The Lakers rank fifth (44.8%). Denver leads all playoff teams in points scored in the paint per game (53.6), slightly ahead of second-ranked L.A. (50.3).
Both teams have solid but unspectacular interior defenses. The Lakers rank eighth among playoff teams in points in the paint allowed per game (46.7), slightly ahead of the 10th-ranked Nuggets (47.3). Both teams improved in the metric since the regular season — the Lakers ranked 23rd in points in the paint allowed per game (52.8), slightly behind the 21st-ranked Nuggets (52.5).
The Lakers have likely protected the paint better in the playoffs than in the regular season because of Anthony Davis. They have allowed only 43.3 points in the paint per 48 minutes with him on the floor compared to 55.7 with him off it in the playoffs. In contrast, the Nuggets have allowed 47.1 points in the paint for 48 minutes with Nikola Jokic on the floor but 45.7 with him off it.
Lakers-Nuggets Series Betting Picks
Let’s cut to the chase. The Nuggets have two key advantages in the form of home-court advantage and a relative edge on the glass. Neither team takes a ton of 3’s, but the Nuggets have been much more efficient than the Lakers from beyond the arc. Both teams have relied on interior scoring, and the Lakers have shown an ability to shut down the paint with center Anthony Davis on the floor that the Nuggets haven’t.
Let’s dive into the markets I’m targeting for this series.
Nikola Jokic O/U 28.2 Points Per Game
If Davis is healthy for the full series, Jokic should spend more of his time passing and less of his time scoring. He is averaging 30.7 points per game through the first two rounds of the playoffs, but he’ll now face a viable interior defender in Davis. Jokic averaged only 26.2 points per game in Denver’s opening-round series against the Minnesota Timberwolves, who had both Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert to throw at him.
A whopping 60.4% of Jokic’s points have come in the paint during the playoffs. Only 5.3% of his points have come from midrange shots. While Jokic has done some damage from beyond the arc in the postseason, he shot a miserable 3-for-13 (23.1%) from deep against the Lakers in the regular season. Let’s trust Davis to stay healthy and fade Jokic as a scorer in this series.
Lakers-Nuggets Series Player Prop Bet: Nikola Jokic Under 28.2 Points Per Game -115 for 0.57 Units at DraftKings
Team to Win Game 1/Series Double
I would love to see LeBron James in another NBA Finals, but the betting markets are absolutely too high on the Lakers. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the Nuggets at -158 to win the series outright, worse odds than what you’ll find at almost every public sportsbook in the United States. The books know that people want action on James and company.
But instead of betting on the outright market for this series, let’s target a Game 1/Series double. The Nuggets have won each of their Game 1s to this point by double-digit margins. They also waxed the Lakers by a double-digit margin in both of their regular-season home stands against them. Because we can get Denver to win Game 1 and the series at odds of +110, I have to lock in this play for a half unit.
Best Lakers-Nuggets Series Bet: Nuggets Game 1/Series +110 for 0.5 Units at DraftKings
