The Charlotte Hornets are expected to get star guard LaMelo Ball back in action tonight. At 8-27, the injury-riddled Hornets are in desperate need of help from anywhere they can find it. Let’s dive into the LaMelo Ball player prop odds for his return as we look to identify the best bet for Thursday’s Hornets-Spurs matchup. If you’re hungry for more action, check out the rest of our NBA player prop picks, our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos. Also, you can always check out my guide to NBA player prop betting as well!
LaMelo Ball Player Prop: Best Hornets-Spurs Pick Today
Hornets-Spurs Player Prop Pick: LaMelo Ball O/U 18.5 Points
When LaMelo Ball returns to action against the Spurs tonight, he’ll be on a minutes restriction. After today’s shootaround, head coach Steve Clifford has said the restrictions aren’t “significant” but acknowledged that there would be some, adding “it’s just to me, how many minutes at a time” — whatever that means. Incoherent coachspeak aside, we’re fading the young superstar in this spot.
Ball is averaging 24.7 points per game this year on 0.739 points per minute. With his points prop trading at 18.5, Ball would need to play 26 minutes or more to cash the over at that rate. That’s probably a fair estimate for Ball’s workload. While Ball could be more effective than usual against a bad Spurs defense that ranks a dreadful 25th in defensive rating this year, but I’m fading him regardless.
Ball’s scoring pace to start this season marked a major uptick from last season. He averaged 0.662 points per minute in the 2022-23 campaign, and he would need to play upwards of 28 minutes to cash the over at that rate. However, most of those numbers came with Miles Bridges out. Ball averages only 0.609 points per minute with Bridges active, a scoring pace that would require him to play north of 30.
I locked in Ball to stay under the 18.5 point mark for odds of -110 at BetMGM, and you should, too. Ball scored just 15 points when on a minutes restriction of 30 on opening night. The matchup against a bad Spurs defense is a brutal one for prospective under bettors, but I don’t think Ball will see either the minutes or the usage required to bust this bet. If you’re new to BetMGM, make sure to take advantage of their new sign-up offer: get $158 in bonus bets after wagering just $5!
Hornets-Spurs Player Prop: LaMelo Ball Under 18.5 Points -110 at BetMGM
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