The NBA Draft Lottery is such a fun time for a number of reasons. One, teams find out if their years of tanking for that one moment are about to pay off. Two, it’s the one time of year where the NBA can brazenly rig something with zero accountability (Derrick Rose to the Bulls, anyone?) and few, if anyone, end up caring. And lastly, it’s the only time the Deputy Commissioner gets to smile and say words on camera.
Speaking of brazenly rigging things, there are plenty of instances of teams with very low odds to win the NBA Draft Lottery leaping all the way to the No. 1 pick. In fact, since 1990 — though most teams to land the No. 1 pick had odds of 10% or higher — six teams have won with a chance lower than 5%. Here we will look at those longest odds to win the NBA Draft Lottery that ended up getting the top pick, and we’ll also see who they took with said pick.
6. 2000 New Jersey Nets — 4.4% Chance, 7th Highest
Who They Took: Kenyon Martin, Cincinnati
What a shame to be the Nets around this time. Actually, no, things turned out pretty much fine, with two Finals appearances within three years of the 2000 NBA Draft. What I mean is, this was by any metric the worst draft of the modern era, at least in terms of actual results.
I don’t know if it was deemed poor at the time, but Kenyon Martin was the consensus No. 1 pick and probably still goes No. 1 in a redraft despite making only one All-Star Game and never going above the level of, “yeah, that guy is a pretty good player!” This whole draft had three All-Stars total — not three players who made the All-Star Game (but maybe one of them made a handful), three total appearances in an All-Star Game. Martin made one, Michael Redd made one, and Jamaal Magloire (seriously?) made one. Hey, the Nets came out as well as possible in the worst draft ever, so kudos.
The miserable Clippers had the best odds at 25%, followed by the Bulls at 20%. They took Darius Miles (OK player) and Marcus Fizer (not OK player), respectively. The Nets were seventh with a 4.4% chance and they made it count.
5. 2024 Atlanta Hawks — 3.0% Chance, 10th Highest
Who They Took: TBD
At the time of the Hawks jumping from 10th on the lottery odds board to No. 1, this was considered one of the weakest drafts of the lottery era, at least in terms of top-level talent. What a great year it was for them to be one of the luckiest lottery teams ever.
Unlucky were the Pistons, who won 14 whole games for the right to draft fifth and fall out of the top slots completely. The Wizards stood pat at No. 2 after entering with the best odds to get the top pick (tied with Detroit), so it could have been worse.
The NBA Draft is Jun 26, so we will see how the Hawks handle this injection of top-pick juju.
4. 2011 Los Angeles Clippers (Went to Cavaliers) — 2.8% Chance, 8th Highest
Who They Took: Kyrie Irving, Duke
This was the beginning of the Golden Era for the Clippers: Blake Griffin and Chris Paul, Lob City, the only time they were genuinely more interesting than the Lakers by a lot. So we’ll forgive them losing this pick to the Cavaliers thanks to an earlier trade.
This is splitting hairs a bit, but technically the Cavaliers had a 22.7% chance of winning: The Clippers pick accounting for 2.8% and their own pick 19.9%. But it was the Clippers pick that game up for them, so the Cavs get the No. 4 spot on the list. They also made the right (though obvious) call by taking Kyrie Irving in a draft that is FAR better in hindsight than it was at the time. It included raw projects like Klay Thompson, Kawhi Leonard and Jimmy Butler, who went 11th, 15th and 30th, while the Timberwolves and their 25% chance to win the lottery netted them Derrick Williams at No. 2. Man, it’s tough being a Minnesota fan.
3. 2008 Chicago Bulls — 1.7% Chance, 9th Highest
Who They Took: Derrick Rose, Memphis
Rigged, rigged, rigged. Of course Rose went to Chicago, his home town and a top-3 market that hadn’t had a star since Michael Jordan. The narrative wrote itself.
Except it definitely didn’t because David Stern definitely wrote it and gave the Bulls, who had a 1.7% chance of landing Rose, the No. 1 pick. The Rose-Michael Beasley debate was real at the time, but Chicago was never going to pass on the prodigal son. And sure, Rose’s career ultimately ended up being a disappointment, but he won MVP and was a legitimately great, top-5 NBA player for a few years before injuries took him down. Beasley, meanwhile, flamed out spectacularly — again, the lucky team made off well with their good fortune.
Miami ended up double unfortunate because they got Beasley at No. 2 after having a 25% chance of landing the top pick. Well, they made up for the Beasley bust by getting LeBron James and Chris Bosh two years later.
2. 1993 Orlando Magic — 1.52% Chance, 11th Highest
Who They Took: Chris Webber, Michigan
It is genuinely insane that this happened, and even more insane that the best the Magic got out of it was one trip to the NBA Finals, where they got swept by the Rockets in 1995.
Orlando got Shaquille O’Neal No. 1 in 1992, and they had a reasonable 15.15% chance of winning that one (second highest). In 1993, with another “generational” prospect in Chris Webber on the table, The Magic had just a 1.52% shot at getting him — and they hit it again. The Mavericks at 16.67% went from projected No. 1 down to No. 4, and they got Jamal Mashburn (a really good player, but not Webber).
The Magic didn’t even end up keeping the pick; they traded Webber to Golden State for their No. 3 selection, Penny Hardaway, another great move because he and O’Neal became a killer duo for a few years. Webber actually burned all the bridges with the Warriors, then again with Washington before finally becoming Hall of Fame level with the Kings.
Hardaway was the opposite: Great immediately, but injuries cut his career short and left him on the list of the NBA’s greatest what-ifs.
1. 2014 Cleveland Cavaliers — 1.4% Chance, 9th Highest
Who They Took: Andrew Wiggins, Kansas
Let me take back what I said about the Magic thing being crazy — it was, but at least they made good decisions along the way. The Cavaliers were rewarded for completely incompetence post-LeBron by earning THREE No. 1 picks in four seasons. Their third chance is when the earned the title of longest odds to win the NBA Draft Lottery.
And one of those picks was Anthony mother-effing Bennett, the worst No. 1 pick ever by literally any metric. Instead of saying, “OK Cleveland, you get a five-year ban from the No. 1 pick for taking Bennett first,” they let them luck into yet another top pick.
Like the Webber thing, Cleveland didn’t keep Andrew Wiggins, who was not as consensus No. 1 as we thought he would be at the time. Jabari Parker and Joel Embiid both made late pushes for the spot. Alas, the Cavs settled for Wiggins, coaxed LeBron back to Cleveland and used Wiggins to bring in Kevin Love. So really, this is the only draft pick here that directly led to an NBA Championship for the drafting team — man, these lucky franchises have been so astute.
The tanking Bucks were left to settle for Parker, who was OK but got hurt a lot. Luckily for them, the lanky project they drafted the year earlier ended up making something of himself.
