Remember basketball? It’s been gone for eons, but it’s actually coming back! And lucky us, we’re jumping right into the NBA Finals. That sounds like a good time to build a high-stakes parlay. As always, these same-game parlays are all about building long-term profitability, not just results here and now. Now let’s create a bet365 NBA same-game parlay bet for Mavericks-Celtics with the help of OddsShopper’s Parlay Builder.
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Mavericks-Celtics Parlay: Bet365 SGP With Kristaps Porzingis
Leg #1: Daniel Gafford Under 7.5 Points
Props for Gafford and Dereck Lively II are going to be a circus all series, barring injury or one of them going on a crazy heater. Lively is getting kicked in the head roughly every 20 minutes of court time, so the former is easily in play.
Both were crazy efficient from the field against Minnesota — Gafford shot 75% and Lively did not miss any of his 16 attempts. Given their play styles and the man feeding them most of the time, high shooting percentages are likely to remain. The question is whether or not one of them grabs a firmer hold of center minutes.
Gafford had the edge in scoring and minutes the first three games of the Timberwolves series, but Lively played more in Game 5. Gafford still managed 11 points, however. OddsShopper’s NBA model likes Lively to keep the lead in minutes and also get some more shots up now that the Defensive Player of the Year is not roaming the paint.
That’s the main driving force of the expected win rate. Gafford still has a 53% chance of scoring at least 8 points in Game 1, but given the plus money on the under, the value is still with that side. On its own as a player prop, Gafford under 7.5 points gets us a 2.5% edge compared to the market thanks to +115 True Odds dropping below the +120 bet365 odds. That is going to get our total Mavericks-Celtics parlay a nice boost in overall expected value while not totally killing our win rate.
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Leg #2: Kristaps Porzingis Under 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
So … Porzingis is definitely playing in this series, and everyone is doing their darndest to insist he’s fully healthy. Porzingis and “totally healthy” go together in a sentence like peanut butter and broccoli, but hey, I’m no doctor.
What I am, however, is a person with a functioning memory and recall every nagging injury of his that failed to heal in a timely fashion. I also remember the fact that he hasn’t played since April and that he has one season in the last seven in which he played 60-plus games.
The point is, I would be quite surprised if he gets close to the 30-ish minutes that his points + rebounds + assists line may require.
Porzingis was getting quite limited volume leading up to his injury anyway, as he averaged only 10.3 shots and 22 PRA prior in the four games prior to going down. Now throw in over a month’s worth of rust AND the wear and tear of going against some physical bigs AND protecting the paint against a dominant Luka Doncic, and low- to mid-20s minutes seem more on tap.
Yes, Porzingis averaged over 29 PRA per game in the regular season. He also did that in 29.6 minutes per game, so he averaged less than 1 per minute. At that rate — one accomplished by a healthier Porzingis — he needs to play at least 25 minutes.
That is possible, but what seems less likely is him keeping up that rate of about 0.98 PRA per minute. OddsShopper’s NBA model has the win rate on Porzingis under 24.5 PRA at 54%, and the -110 bet365 odds are far enough below the True Odds to make this bet 3.0% +EV.
All together, that gets our Mavs-Celtics parlay to +320 odds for 5.64% expected value and a 25% win rate.
It’s important to remember if you are new to +EV betting that your edge shows how you’ll make money over the long term — but it may be a long term. Our backtested simulations prove this strategy is profitable, but iffy early returns can’t discourage you.
Mavericks-Celtics Parlay Today: +320 at bet365
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