Since we hit our Sunday Mavericks-Timberwolves parlay, I don’t feel too bad about dropping both legs on Tuesday. Remember, these SGPs are all about building long-terms profitability, not just results here and now. So again, let’s create a bet365 NBA same-game parlay bet for Timberwolves-Mavericks with the help of OddsShopper’s Parlay Builder.
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Mavericks-Timberwolves Parlay: Bet365 SGP With Kyrie Irving
Leg #1: Mike Conley Under 12.5 Points
We just can’t seem to quit him.
Conley has, for better or worse, featured in just about every one of our Timberwolves same-game parlays for the better part of a decade. It has worked in our favor quite a bit too, though Tuesday’s game was a big over when we faded Conley’s points + rebounds + assists.
We’re sticking with his unders, but let’s keep it simple this time: Just pure points.
That 12.5 line is a good one; Conley surpassed it in eight of 14 postseason games to date but only 40.8% of regular season games. Much of his chance of dropping 13 will come down to 3-point shooting, as all but one of his overs on 12.5 in the playoffs came in games where he made at least two 3’s. Only two games with multiple 3’s resulted in an under.
So how are we looking there? Well, Conley’s 3-pointer line is set at 2.5 industrywide, and OddsShopper gives him a 61% chance of staying under that number. In the same vein, the model has his expected win rate on under 12.5 points at 56%, leading to True Odds of -127. Bet365 has the odds at -120, which gives us a 2.5% edge on this leg of our SGP.
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Leg #2: Kyrie Irving Under 31.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
I was a little surprised to see an Irving under as a +EV play in OddsShopper’s NBA betting model given how dynamite he has been (at least prior to Game 4). But alas, Irving is averaging 31.1 points + rebounds + assists this postseason despite playing 40-plus minutes a game.
He is over 31.5 per game in this series (32.8), but much of his perceived “dominance” is due to how strongly he has closed games for Dallas — not necessarily for four quarters of stat stuffing.
Irving’s individual lines are 23.5 points, 4.5 assists and 3.5 rebounds for 31.5 PRA. Our model puts the chances of those overs hitting at 46%, 46% and 52%, respectively, leading to the PRA under having a 52% expected win rate.
And though it’s no massively +EV at its current odds (2.2% at bet365), getting a bet below -110 with higher than a 50% chance of hitting is always going to be positive long term. In this case, the -105 bet365 odds is a tick below the -110 True Odds, hence where that 2.2% EV edge is coming from.
It’s important to remember if you are new to +EV betting that your edge shows how you’ll make money over the long term — but it may be a long term. Our backtested simulations prove this strategy is profitable, but iffy early returns can’t discourage you.
So don’t fret if we lose a second straight same-game parlay for this Mavericks-Timberwolves series. In the long run, our tools show how these plays are ultimately profitable. All together, this SGP is 4% +EV with a 29% chance of winning.
Mavericks-Timberwolves Parlay Today: +257 at bet365
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