With the NBA All-Star break here, now is a good time to do an NBA awards odds update and examine if there is any value to be had with the award races. Some spots are wider open than others, but make sure you’re checking out OddsShopper’s futures board to ensure you’re getting the best value on any NBA awards bets. For the sake of this article, we are focusing on DraftKings Sportsbook.
NBA Awards Odds Update at the All-Star Break
NBA MVP
Benjy Sabitt updated the MVP race a couple of weeks ago, and since then there has been some shifting with the odds. ESPN release its second MVP straw poll this week and revealed some interesting developments. For one, Nikola Jokic is not just the favorite in the voting pool, but the overwhelming favorite, earning 77 first-place votes. He is now up to -250 as the favorite on DraftKings. Giannis Antetokounmpo finished second with 11 first-place votes and 38 second-place votes to Joel Embiid‘s 24 second spots. However, Embiid remains ahead of Antetokounmpo on DraftKings at +425 to Giannis’ +700. Luka Doncic and Jayson Tatum round out the top 5 both in ESPN’s poll and DraftKings odds, though Tatum was fourth in the poll and fifth on DraftKings.
All told, while there is still plenty of basketball to play, this is shaping out to be the same three-man race last season’s.
NBA Rookie of the Year
This one may be close to over, plain and simple. Bennedict Mathurin has made enough of a case to get below +1000, and a late run could get him closer in the discussion, but Paolo Banchero has been the consensus pick since November. He leads all rookies in scoring, minutes and field goals, ranks third in assists and is fourth in rebounds. Mathurin, meanwhile, has been almost as impressive at 17.2 points per game on slightly better efficiency than Banchero. But really, the only thing that could get Mathurin out front is a colossal cold streak from Banchero and/or a late-season push from the Pacers for a playoff spot.
NBA Defensive Player of the Year
These odds are closer than they probably should be. Jaren Jackson Jr. has pretty clearly been the most valuable defensive player in the NBA this season (or at least best rim protector), so the only thing holding him back is his number of games. He is up to 40 now, which is still not enough to rank him among league leaders in blocks — and yet he still is third in the NBA in total blocks. If he were to qualify, his 3.3 blocks per game would dwarf current “leader” Nicolas Claxton (2.6).
But Jackson has only missed three games since returning from the injury that kept him out the first 14 games, and as long as he gets to around 60 games played (which would require playing 20 of the remaining 25), this award should be his. That said, Claxton and Brook Lopez have kept up their early-season dominance, and Bam Adebayo is arguably the most versatile defender among the top 5, so any slip-up from Jackson will keep this race wide open.
NBA Sixth Man of the Year
Russell Westbrook dominated this category all season, but now that he is without a team, this race is back to a free-for-all. Malcolm Brogdon at -170 makes a lot of sense as to the kind of player who can win this award — a former stud starter settling into a bench role for a great team, aka the Bill Walton model. And at 14.7 points per game, he fits the other requirement of being a decent volume scorer coming off the bench, also known as the Jamal Crawford/Lou Williams rule.
That said, Norman Powell and Tyrese Maxey fit that second mold better — 17.0 points and 19.8 points per game, respectively. Maxey would probably be leading in these odds if he had more games under his belt, so any wager on him is depending on health. Plus, he has started 22 of his 38 games, so “sixth man” is kind of a misnomer with him anyway. As a true sixth man, Powell probably has the most value at +350, but the Clippers may need to make a run up the standings to get him out front in this race.
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NBA Coach of the Year
This is the most wide-open campaign at the moment, with three guys in close contention for the top spot. Boston’s Joe Mazzulla has had the most obvious success, along with a tough off-court situation; that said, he took over a team that won the Eastern Conference last year. Sacramento’s Mike Brown is probably the sentimental favorite as the lovable, player-friendly coach who looks likely to get the Kings to the playoffs for the first time in years. And then there is Michael Malone helming the best team in the West and the No. 1 offense in the entire NBA.
However, Malone honestly seems like the odd man out here since the Kings are just a hair behind the Nuggets for the top offensive rating. Plus, since the Nuggets and Celtics had strong expectations and the award frequently goes to coaches who exceed projections, Brown looks like great value at +240.
NBA Most Improved Player
Public sentiment this year has swung wildly between the two favorites in Lauri Markkanen and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Jalen Brunson is the only guy even in the discussion, but +300 seems way too close to the two favorites considering how much bigger their leaps are this year. Markkanen went from a middling role player to legitimate All-Star starter in one year, while Gilgeous-Alexander has emerged as a true alpha for an exciting, young Thunder team. Either would be deserving, but since they are both at +130, Markkanen is a slightly better value as a “came out of nowhere” story.
