As the NBA season ramps up, keeping track of NBA betting data like projected usage and minutes for each team’s key players is crucial when placing bets. Here’s a data analysis of some key matchups and projections for tonight’s slate — specifically minutes and usage projections and some best bets from Tails By OddsShopper.
NBA Betting Data: Minutes and Usage Projections
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Indiana Pacers Minutes and Usage Projections
James Wiseman is joining the team this season, while Jalen Smith is gone. Isaiah Jackson remains questionable, but the current lean is that he will sit out, leaving the Pacers likely to run a 10-man rotation.
Detroit Pistons Minutes and Usage Projections
The Detroit Pistons have undergone significant roster changes, bringing in Tobias Harris, Malik Beasley, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Paul Reed while sending out Quentin Grimes, Evan Fournier, Wiseman and Malachi Flynn. With Ausar Thompson also out tonight, the Pistons are expected to run a nine-man rotation under new head coach J.B. Bickerstaff, who emphasizes a defense-first mentality.
Brooklyn Nets Minutes and Usage Projections
The Brooklyn Nets will be without Bojan Bogdanovic, Day’Ron Sharpe and Trendon Watford tonight, leaving them with a 10-man rotation that’s expected to distribute minutes fairly evenly. The team has been cautious with Ben Simmons‘ playing time so far, but his minutes will be a key factor in this game. Atlanta ranked fifth in pace last season. Eric Lindquist highlighted that if Simmons sees significant minutes, he’s a strong candidate for a triple-double at long odds (25-1).
Atlanta Hawks Minutes and Usage Projections
The Atlanta Hawks lost Dejounte Murray, Saddiq Bey and Wesley Matthews and will run a nine-man rotation. Trae Young is expected to see a significant bump in usage, especially with Clint Capela cleared to play. Josh Engleman has the Hawks as 7.3-point favorites and likes the over on a projected game total of 225, making both the spread and the over strong bets.
Orlando Magic Minutes and Usage Projections
The Orlando Magic head into tonight fully healthy, having added Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to their roster. The Magic are expected to run a 10-man rotation, with one of the league’s best defensive backcourts featuring Caldwell-Pope and Jalen Suggs. This game against the Heat is expected to be a slow-paced affair, with Miami ranking 29th in pace and Orlando 27th last season, making this the lowest total on the slate.
Miami Heat Minutes and Usage Projections
The Miami Heat are dealing with the losses of Caleb Martin and Delon Wright and the absence of Josh Richardson. Despite these injuries, they’re expected to run a 10-man rotation with Bam Adebayo leading all centers at 35 projected minutes tonight. Adebayo shot 5.8 3’s per game during the preseason, and our data team loves the over on his 0.5 three-pointers made at -133 odds.
Milwaukee Bucks Minutes and Usage Projections
The Milwaukee Bucks will be without Khris Middleton tonight, but Giannis Antetokounmpo is ready to go. With new acquisitions Gary Trent Jr. and Taurean Prince likely to start, the Bucks are expected to run a 10-man rotation. Eric Lindquist has this game pegged at a -7.5 line, but the actual line is Bucks -3.5, suggesting some value in alt lines.
Philadelphia 76ers Minutes and Usage Projections
The 76ers will be missing Paul George and Joel Embiid tonight, leaving them with a nine- or 10-man rotation. Tyrese Maxey is projected to see the most minutes of any player on the slate, and his usage will skyrocket with both George and Embiid out. This makes Maxey a strong target for overs on several props.
Cleveland Cavaliers Minutes and Usage Projections
The Cavaliers haven’t made major offseason moves but have added Kenny Atkinson as head coach, who is expected to implement more ball movement into the offense. Max Strus will miss tonight’s game, leaving Dean Wade to start in his place. Cleveland’s defensive frontcourt remains stout, and they’re expected to run a 10-man rotation with four starters projected for over 30 minutes.
Toronto Raptors Minutes and Usage Projections
The Raptors are expected to roll out an 11-man rotation tonight with R.J. Barrett, Kelly Olynyk, and Bruce Brown out. Scottie Barnes and Immanuel Quickley are expected to dominate usage for Toronto. Eric Lindquist noted that Quickley’s assist percentage jumps from 9.2% to 15% in Brown’s absence, making the over on his assist prop an attractive option.
Charlotte Hornets Minutes and Usage Projections
The Charlotte Hornets have added Josh Green, Reggie Jackson and Taj Gibson this season, but Green is a game-time decision tonight. Mark Williams is out, which could lead to increased minutes for Nick Richards, although projections currently have them spread across the rotation. The Hornets are expected to run an 11-man rotation, so keep an eye on minutes for Green and Richards.
Houston Rockets Minutes and Usage Projections
The Houston Rockets are entering the game with rookie Reed Sheppard coming off the bench after a stellar preseason. Steven Adams remains questionable, but if he plays, it could impact Alperen Sengun’s rebounding opportunities. The under on Sengun’s 9.5 rebounds looks like a sharp play, as projections currently have him at 8.24.
Chicago Bulls Minutes and Usage Projections
The Chicago Bulls are fully healthy heading into tonight’s matchup, with Lonzo Ball returning after two years. He will have a minutes restriction, so expect a tight 10-man rotation. The Bulls are +6.5 underdogs, but Eric Lindquist believes this line is inflated, especially with the Pelicans dealing with multiple game-time decisions, including Zion Williamson and Dejounte Murray. The Bulls could be a sneaky play against the spread tonight.
New Orleans Pelicans Minutes and Usage Projections
The Pelicans are dealing with a litany of injuries, including Williamson, Murray and Jose Alvarado all listed as questionable. With Trey Murphy already ruled out, C.J. McCollum and Brandon Ingram could see major usage bumps if Williamson and Murray sit. Our data team suggests looking at Yves Missi and Karlo Matkovic for potential minutes increases in the frontcourt. If Williamson and Murray are ruled out, McCollum will become a strong bet for overs in points and assists props.
Memphis Grizzlies Minutes and Usage Projections
The Memphis Grizzlies are excited to have Ja Morant back after he missed most of last season. Zach Edey had a strong preseason and could start over Brandon Clarke. Memphis is facing a Utah team that had the worst defensive efficiency in the league last season, making this a potential high-scoring affair. The Grizzlies, with Morant back, are being touted as a sneaky pick to win the Western Conference, with +1600 odds currently available.
“Ja Morant is back and Memphis is ready to make a run to the top of the Western Conference” – TheFantasyExec
Utah Jazz Minutes and Usage Projections
The Utah Jazz lost Kris Dunn and Omer Yurtseven, and rookies Cody Williams should see decent minutes in their absence. With a 10-man rotation expected, the Jazz will need contributions from their young players. Keep an eye on Williams, who has looked promising during the preseason and may provide value in rebounds and scoring props.
Phoenix Suns Minutes and Usage Projections
The Phoenix Suns are dealing with several game-time decisions, including Grayson Allen and Damion Lee, but Allen is expected to play. The Suns will run a 10-man rotation with Tyus Jones starting at point guard, and Coach Mike Budenholzer has indicated that Jusuf Nurkic will take more 3-point shots this season. While there aren’t any 3-point props available for Nurkic yet, this is something to monitor as the season progresses.
Los Angeles Clippers Minutes and Usage Projections
The Clippers lost Paul George, Mason Plumlee and Daniel Theis, leaving Ivica Zubac in line for increased minutes, especially with Mo Bamba out tonight. Zubac is projected to play well above his average in minutes, making him a potential target for over bets on rebounds and blocks props.
Golden State Warriors Minutes and Usage Projections
The Warriors lost Klay Thompson, Chris Paul and Dario Saric, and although Stephen Curry has a finger injury, he’s expected to play. With Thompson off the court, Curry’s usage skyrocketed to 33.8% last year. Jonathan Kuminga also stands out with a 24.7% usage rate, and Eric Lindquist favors the over on Kuminga’s points prop (17.5), currently sitting at +110 on DraftKings.
Portland Trail Blazers Minutes and Usage Projections
The Trail Blazers will be without Shaedon Sharpe, Matisse Thybulle and Robert Williams tonight, allowing rookie Donovan Clingan to see extended minutes. He was second in the NBA in rebounds per game during the preseason.
