Damian Lillard has finally been dealt — just not to the Miami Heat. In a massive three-team trade that includes the Portland Trail Blazers and Phoenix Suns, the Milwaukee Bucks have acquired the superstar guard in exchange for several veteran players and an unprotected first-round pick. Let’s dive into NBA Championship odds, especially the Milwaukee Bucks odds, as we break down the fallout from the Damian Lillard trade.
NBA Championship Odds: Damian Lillard Trade Sends Milwaukee Bucks Up the Board
Damian Lillard Trade Details
Full trade, per sources:
– Bucks: Damian Lillard
– Blazers: Jrue Holiday, Deandre Ayton, Toumani Camara, 2029 first-round Bucks pick and Bucks pick swap
– Suns: Jusuf Nurkic, Nassir Little, Keon Johnson, Grayson Allen https://t.co/56I888abMs— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) September 27, 2023
Milwaukee Bucks NBA Championship Odds
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Before Trade: +850 ➡️ After Trade: +400
The Milwaukee Bucks landed Damian Lillard but paid a sizeable price to do so. Gone is veteran point guard Jrue Holiday. Sharpshooting wing Grayson Allen is gone, too. Both players were positively graded defenders last year, per RAPTOR, while Lillard was negatively traded. So although Lillard adds more than what Holiday and Allen provided offensively, the Bucks will have to get more help from their reserves as they look to replace Holiday.
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The betting market is bullish on the new-look Bucks team. Pairing Lillard with Giannis Antetokounmpo gives the Bucks an elite one-two punch in the playoffs that can take over any game — but depth could become an issue, especially in the regular season. The Bucks now have lost four of their eight players who played 1,000-plus minutes in the regular season — Holiday, Allen, Jevon Carter and Joe Ingles — with only Lillard and Malik Beasley to show for it.
Phoenix Suns NBA Championship Odds
Before Trade: +650 ➡️ After Trade: +650
The Phoenix Suns finally offloaded Deandre Ayton, who never could stay on the floor in the postseason, and replaced him with Jusuf Nurkic. They also added to a core that struggled with depth in the postseason by bringing in Grayson Allen, Nassir Little and Keon Johnson. It’s unclear who will make Phoenix’s final roster, but the Suns now have a surplus of reserves at wing. The team had already added Eric Gordon, Keita Bates-Diop and Yuta Watanabe at wing this offseason.
Phoenix’s starting lineup will now likely look like this: Bradley Beal–Devin Booker–Grayson Allen–Kevin Durant–Jusuf Nurkic. To me, that’s better than whatever Milwaukee will trot out, likely Damian Lillard-Malik Beasley–Khris Middleton–Giannis Antetokounmpo–Brook Lopez. However, the odds are moving in Milwaukee’s favor, not Phoenix’s, and you can buy the Suns at where they were trading at before the deal.
Portland Trail Blazers NBA Championship Odds
Before Trade: +25000 ➡️ After Trade: +25000
Okay, the whole world knew that Damian Lillard was leaving Portland this offseason, so the lack of line movement here makes sense. The Trail Blazers are likely to move on from Jrue Holiday once they find a buyer, and who knows what this deal means for the rest of Deandre Ayton’s career. I doubt his contract is enticing to too many teams right now, so he’ll likely stay in Portland for a while.
However, the Lillard trade has had consequences for other betting markets. Scoot Henderson’s odds for Rookie of the Year are rapidly shortening — he was trading at +390 before publication, but he is now down to +250 to win the award at DraftKings. His main competition, Victor Wembanyama, has seen his odds lengthen to +100.
Miami Heat NBA Championship Odds
Before Trade: +900 ➡️ After Trade: +2800
Although they weren’t a party to the Damian Lillard trade, the Miami Heat were seen as his likeliest landing spot, and they have seen their odds lengthen following the deal. The Heat were trading at +900 to win next year’s NBA Championship before the deal was announced, but that number has since jumped to +2800. The team will need to find some help for Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler, but, with both Bradley Beal and Lillard now off the market, it’s unclear where they’ll find it.
