The NBA playoff field is set. Well, mostly. The seventh and eighth seeds are yet to be determined by the Play-In Tournament. But considering no team has advanced a round after winning a Play-In game, those contests may not matter all that much. Let’s dig into the NBA championship betting odds to make some predictions as the NBA playoffs approach. An early reading reveals that the market is off when it comes to the Denver Nuggets and Philadelphia 76ers. Make sure to check out OddsShopper’s betting model for picks closer to tipoff!
NBA Championship Betting Odds Update Before Play-In
NBA Championship Predictions: Odds Analysis
Now that the playoffs have arrived, the Milwaukee Bucks (+265) and Boston Celtics (+320), the top two teams in the Eastern Conference, are expected to win this year's NBA Championship by a healthy margin. Their first-round matchups are yet to be determined, but their likeliest two opponents are the Miami Heat (+25000) and Atlanta Hawks (+35000), neither of whom look all that threatening.
The Western Conference lacks a clear frontrunner. The Denver Nuggets (+1100), who secured the conference's top seed, have only the third-best odds of winning the title. They trail the Phoenix Suns (+425) and Golden State Warriors (+950). Part of the explanation may have to do with Denver's possible first-round matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers (+1800), who own the best odds of any Play-In team.
The books feel relatively confident about shorting some teams. This trend is more flagrant in the West. The Sacramento Kings (+8000), who ranked third in their conference this year, own the fourth-longest odds in their conference, as the books seemingly have more confidence in the Suns, Lakers, Clippers and Warriors despite their worse seeding. The Brooklyn Nets (+60000) own the third-longest odds of all teams despite avoiding the Play-In Tournament. Only each conference's 10th-ranked teams are bigger longshots.
NBA Championship Predictions: Clutch Net Rating
Each of the last 10 NBA champions has finished the regular season ranked no worse than 12th in clutch net rating. Last year's winners, the Golden State Warriors, ranked ninth (+4). The year before, the Milwaukee Bucks ranked 12th (+1.6). The Los Angeles Lakers ranked 11th in 2019-20 (+6.4), the Toronto Raptors ranked fifth in 2018-19 (+7.5), and so on.
A few championship contenders failed to reach that cutoff for clutch net rating this season. The Golden State Warriors ranked 14th (+2.1), the Phoenix Suns ranked 18th (-2.7), the Memphis Grizzlies ranked 20th (-3.9) and New York Knicks ranked 28th (-10.7). They are all seeded sixth or better but appear likely to disappoint backers in key moments this postseason.
The Philadelphia 76ers led the NBA in the metric (+16.6), ahead of the Miami Heat (+14.7), Denver Nuggets (+10.4) and Sacramento Kings (+10.4). Those four teams should keep games close in big moments.
Value Bet: Philadelphia 76ers at +900
The market is correct to favor the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks over the Philadelphia 76ers this year. However, that doesn't justify pricing the 76ers at so long of a number. Unlike the Bucks and Celtics, the 76ers already know their first-round opponent, and it's the non-threatening Brooklyn Nets. Although Mikal Bridges will likely put some big games together against the team that drafted him, FiveThirtyEight's model gives Philadelphia the best odds of reaching the conference semifinals at 89%.
It will take an unpredictable upset for the 76ers to avoid playing both the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks on their way to the NBA Finals, but stranger things have happened. And if anything happens to either team before they face Philadelphia, it's safe to expect the 76ers will see their betting odds shorten significantly. Get action on them before the Miami Heat or Atlanta Hawks put up more of a fight in the first round than the Nets do.
Value Bet: Denver Nuggets at +1100
How often can you buy a top seed at a price this long? The Denver Nuggets will have home-court advantage no matter what this postseason. Although a tough opening-round matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers is a possibility, expect this number to shift if the Lakers win their Play-In game on Tuesday. The Nuggets would then face one of the Minnesota Timberwolves, New Orleans Pelicans or Oklahoma City Thunder in that scenario, none of which the books appear worried about.
FiveThirtyEight's model has Denver as the favorite to emerge from the Western Conference at 30%. Their ultimate championship odds of 13% convert to +670 -- well below the current market price of +1100. Last year, the same model's top-four teams all advanced at least one round, and two teams, the Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors, both made the finals. The 76ers and Nuggets rank third and fourth, respectively, in this year's forecast, but they aren't priced accordingly.
