After some thrilling action in the conference semifinal round, four teams remain: in the East, it’s the No. 1 Boston Celtics and the No. 6 Indiana Pacers; in the West, it’s the No. 3 Minnesota Timberwolves and the No. 5 Dallas Mavericks. The Celtics are now trading as heavy favorites to win the NBA Finals, but before we get there, we’ve still got the conference finals. Let’s dive into our experts’ picks and predictions for the NBA Eastern and Western Conference Finals. Check out our NBA betting model for more picks — or use our NBA player prop betting guide to find sharp plays on your own!
NBA Conference Finals Expert Picks & Predictions (May 20)
NBA Conference Finals Expert Picks & Predictions (May 20)
Eastern Conference Finals Odds
Odds via DraftKings
BOS ML: -900 | IND ML: +600
BOS -2.5: -155 | IND +2.5: +130
Over 5.5: +145 | Under 5.5: -170
Eastern Conference Finals Picks & Predictions
@LoughyD – Series Correct Score: Indiana won a war of attrition against New York, except unfortunately for the Knicks, the attrition was one-sided. Tom Thibodeau ran his starters into the ground, and the effects of his ultra-tight rotation became ever apparent as the injuries began to pile up.
Rick Carlisle was able to run a deeper rotation and keep everyone fresh, which proved to be the difference in Game 7. His Indiana Pacers won’t have the same luxury against the Boston Celtics, who, even without Kristaps Porzingis, can get quality minutes from their bench and are fully rested after dispatching the injury-laden Cleveland Cavaliers in five.
Star power wins these series, and Boston has a distinct advantage there. It’s not unrealistic to think Indiana steals a game, but they should be overpowered and outmatched, and all of the advantages they had against New York won’t exist against Boston. The best odds for this bet are the +215 at DraftKings. This same bet is +155 on FanDuel, +160 on Caesars and +165 on ESPN.
Eastern Conference Finals Expert Pick & Prediction: Series Correct Score – Boston 4-1 +215 at DraftKings
@is_sirois – Series Player Prop – Jayson Tatum O/U 28.9 PPG: Few players have been getting clowned as much in the postseason as Jayson Tatum. Yet despite all the clowning, his Celtics have advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals after consecutive gentlemen’s sweeps.
Tatum’s raw output is down, as he is averaging only 24.3 points per game in the postseason after averaging 26.9 in the regular season. However, much of that stems from (1) slow-paced opponents and (2) inefficient shooting caused by good defensive play.
This series should be much faster-paced. Boston’s first opponent, the Miami Heat, played at the NBA’s slowest pace in the regular season. Their second opponent, the Cavaliers, played at the seventh-slowest pace. Indiana played at the second-fastest.
Likewise, Tatum will face far worse defensive coverage. The Heat ranked fifth in defensive rating this regular season (111.5) and the Cavs ranked seventh (112.1), beating out the 24th-ranked Pacers (117.6) by a substantial margin.
Tatum averaged 32.5 points per game across four regular-season meetings with the Pacers this year, going over the 30-point mark in all four games. Look for him to average at least 28.9 points per game against them in the playoffs.
Eastern Conference Finals Expert Pick & Prediction: Jayson Tatum Over 28.9 PPG -115 at DraftKings
Western Conference Finals Odds
Odds via DraftKings
MIN ML: -170 | DAL ML: +140
MIN -1.5: +125 | DAL +1.5: -150
Over 5.5: -160 | Under 5.5: +135
Western Conference Finals Picks & Predictions
@EricLindquist – Western Conference Champions: With the undeniable star power of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving against Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns in this series, it’s easy to miss what I believe the Timberwolves’ biggest advantage should be in this series: their bench.
The combination of Naz Reid and Nickeil Alexander-Walker far exceeds anything the Mavericks can offer from their reserves, and with Maxi Kleber on the shelf for at least the beginning portion of this series, there should be no pulling Rudy Gobert off the floor for small-ball lineups.
With the opening moneyline for Game 1 lingering north of -170 across the industry, I prefer the buying the series price here instead with potential for a small middle if the Timberwolves hold serve.
Western Conference Finals Expert Pick & Prediction: Minnesota to Win the West -165 at FanDuel
