Isaiah Sirois broke down the 2022-23 NBA Defensive Player of the Year race prior to the season, and the real race has taken a dramatically different turn from the opening odds. With the season entering the halfway point, now is a good time to update bettors on Defensive Player of the Year odds and make a pick for who, at this point of the season, is a strong value bet.
And before you make your favorite futures plays, make sure you hit up OddsShopper to guarantee you are getting the very best value on all of your wagers this year.
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NBA Defensive Player of the Year Odds & Picks
Odds below come from DraftKings Sportsbook
Brook Lopez held the top spot throughout the month of December, and he still leads the NBA in blocks per game on a Milwaukee team that ranks second in defensive rating. However, Jaren Jackson Jr. has now jumped him in DraftKings' odds, albeit ever so slightly. This is clearly a move based on future projection; at the moment, Jackson has not played enough games to qualify for any statistical leads.
But Jackson is averaging a half a block more per game than Lopez, and his 11.1% block rate would also lead the league by a wide margin -- Nicolas Claxton is currently No. 1 at 7.8%. Plus, Memphis is just a tick behind Milwaukee in defensive rating and will likely creep higher as Jackson plays more games. He currently has 21 games under his belt, and to really contend for Defensive Player of the Year, Jackson will likely need to get to the 60s at least. Last year was his only year doing so (78 games). Having already missed 16, he can only miss around six more games the rest of the way to truly avoid the stigma of missing too much action.
As such, Lopez may be the better play right now among the two betting favorites. There is no doubt that Jackson has the most impressive defensive resume of anyone -- within the time they have played, at least -- but Lopez is a safer bet to have a substantial resume of games come season's end. After all, he has only missed one game in 2022-23.
But for a little more value, the best play of all at this point is Claxton. Lopez and Jackson are so far ahead of everyone else in the Defensive Player of the Year odds that none of the top 10 players are really in the conversation all that much. But among Nos. 3 through 10, Claxton has the best combination of strong individual resume, team success and longshot odds to sneak into the race.
Again, Claxton is No. 1 in block rate at the moment and will likely hold onto it until Jackson accrues enough games to surpass him. He is also just narrowly behind Lopez for the league lead in blocks per game -- 2.6 to 2.5. And though Brooklyn is not at the level of Memphis or Milwaukee defensively, it is still top 10 on the season with Claxton as defensive anchor. If the Nets hold their ground near the top of the East and Lopez and/or Jackson fall off at all, Claxton will jump up into this discussion far more than he is currently.
At the midway point of the season, he makes the most sense as a value pick for Defensive Player of the Year. And to give you a lift on this longshot, DraftKings is running its BEST DEAL YET! To get access, all you need to do is bet $5 on a moneyline and you will win $200 if your team wins! The $200 in bonus bets will allow you to lay a bet on Claxton.
Best Defensive Player of the Year Prediction: Nicolas Claxton +4500
