With the first games of the NBA Play-In Tournament in the books, the betting markets for three series in each conference have opened. Let’s take a look at the NBA Eastern Conference series betting odds to determine which teams have value, as we make our Eastern Conference series predictions. As always, make sure to check OddsShopper’s betting model for picks closer to tipoff!
NBA Series Betting Odds & Predictions: Eastern Conference
No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. No. 5 New York Knicks
Outright: Cavaliers -200, Knicks +165
Series Spread: Cavaliers -1.5 at +105
The Cleveland Cavaliers are slightly favored over the New York Knicks in their opening-round matchup. The Knicks may not have their star forward and leading scorer, Julius Randle, back from an injury by the time the series begins. DraftKings Sportsbook has the odds of Cleveland winning this series set to only 66.7%. FiveThirtyEight’s model gives Cleveland a 62% chance of advancing.
The New York Knicks actually won the season series against the Cavaliers. The Cavaliers lost the only time they started their standard starting lineup, albeit by only a two-point margin, despite the Knicks missing Mitchell Robinson for that game. Randle erupted for 36 points on 11-for-21 from the floor and 8-for-12 from beyond the arc. However, it’s unlikely the Knicks will get four similar performances from him in the playoffs.
Few teams will benefit as much from home-court advantage as the Cavaliers. Cleveland went an impressive 24-16-1 against the spread (ATS) at home this year and 31-10 straight up (SU). For comparison, the Knicks went only 18-20-3 ATS at home and 23-18 SU. The Knicks got to the playoffs by succeeding on the road, where they went 26-14-1 ATS and 24-17 SU.
The Cavaliers should win this series, but it might take them seven games to do so. They enter the postseason ranked second in net rating (+5.6) and 11th in clutch net rating (+3), giving them a leg up over the Knicks, who rank seventh (+2.8) and 28th (-10.7) in those metrics, respectively. With Randle’s status still up in the air for Game 1, look for the Cavaliers to lock in an early victory before winning their first-round matchup outright.
Cavaliers-Knicks NBA Series Prediction: CLE to Win Game 1/CLE to Win Series -115 at DraftKings for 1 Unit
No. 3 Philadelphia 76ers vs. No. 6 Brooklyn Nets
Outright: 76ers -900, Nets +600
Series Spread: 76ers -2.5 at -150
The Philadelphia 76ers have a massive advantage over the Brooklyn Nets in the betting markets. Although it’ll be cool to see what Mikal Bridges can do to the team that drafted him, Joel Embiid and James Harden will likely power the 76ers through to the semifinals. DraftKings Sportsbook’s odds imply a 90% chance the 76ers win this series; FiveThirtyEight’s model gives them an 88% chance of advancing.
Philadelphia swept Brooklyn this season, and two of the teams’ meetings came after the Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving trades. The Nets kept the first of these meetings, the only one that ended up having playoff consequences, close. They lost by only a three-point margin. The second came after seeding had already been determined, and both teams rested their starters. The 76ers won by 29.
Like the Cavaliers, the 76ers have excelled at home. They went 24-16-1 ATS in the Wells Fargo Center and 29-12 SU this year. The Nets have often put up a fight on the road, as they went 23-18 ATS when away from Brooklyn this year, but that may not be enough to compensate for Philadelphia’s overall talent advantage.
Books and models are correctly favoring the 76ers by a wide margin. Philadelphia is the fifth-best team in net rating since the All-Star Break (+5.2), considerably better than 19th-ranked Brooklyn (-1.2). The 76ers are also the fourth-best team in clutch net rating (+28.4) since that point, while the Nets are a laughable 28th (-24.3). This series should not go beyond five games. If it does, that’s a remarkable failure by head coach Doc Rivers.
76ers-Nets NBA Series Prediction: PHI -2.5 Games -150 at DraftKings for 0.75 Unit
No. 2 Boston Celtics vs. No. 7 Atlanta Hawks
Outright: Celtics -1000, Hawks +650
Series Spread: Celtics -2.5 at -165
After an upset in the play-in game against the Miami Heat, the Atlanta Hawks earned the right to play the Boston Celtics in the opening round. DraftKings Sportsbook now gives the Celtics a 90.9% chance to advance, slightly better than the 88% chance that FiveThirtyEight’s model gives them. The numbers suggest it’s likelier the Celtics sweep the Hawks than the 76ers sweep the Nets.
The Celtics easily dispatched the Hawks in their three meetings this season. They won both home games, one in November and the next in March, by a combined total of 34 points. They also won the meaningless season finale in Atlanta by six. Both of Boston’s wins came without key members of their rotation: Robert Williams III missed both games. Malcolm Brogdon and Marcus Smart missed the second. Atlanta had its standard rotation available for both games.
Like most teams that did well in the Eastern Conference this year, the Celtics handled their home games. They went 24-17 ATS and 32-9 SU. In contrast, Atlanta went a brutal 18-23 ATS at home despite going 24-17 SU. The Hawks also went only 19-22-1 ATS on the road and 18-24 SU. The Celtics went a respectable 22-19 ATS on the road while going 25-16 SU. While the Hawks handled the Heat on the road, the Miami faithful left many seats open and never factored into the game.
Again, it’s impossible to disagree with the conclusion that the Celtics are rightfully favored. They led the NBA in net rating this year (+6.7) and ranked second in both offensive and defensive rating. The Hawks ranked just 19th (+0.1). The Celtics also ranked a solid eighth in clutch net rating (+4.6), far ahead of the 29th-ranked Hawks (-15.9). The juice is heavily stacked in Boston’s favor on most markets, so let’s bet on them to get a sweep for a partial unit.
Celtics-Hawks NBA Series Prediction: BOS 4-0 Series Correct Score +240 for 0.25 Unit
No. 1 Milwaukee Bucks vs. TBD
Check back after the NBA Play-In Tournament!
