The NBA is almost back. It’s mid-October, and we’ve got just a week to go before we’re back in action. That means it’s time to lock in your NBA futures bets! Our staff is here with their NBA expert picks for the upcoming season. Let’s dive into their NBA expert picks and predictions for the 2024-25 NBA MVP Award — we’ll also break down the 2024-25 NBA MVP Award odds before getting into the analysis. If you’re new to NBA betting, check out our NBA betting strategy guide or how to bet on NBA player props!
NBA Expert Picks: Odds & Predictions for the 2024-25 NBA MVP Award
NBA Expert Picks: Odds & Predictions for the 2024-25 NBA MVP Award
2024-25 NBA MVP Odds
2024-25 NBA MVP Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Luka Doncic: +330
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: +410
Nikola Jokic: +480
Giannis Antetokounmpo: +800
Anthony Edwards: +800
Jalen Brunson: +1200
Jayson Tatum: +1300
Victor Wembanyama: +2000
Joel Embiid: +3000
NBA Expert Picks: 2024-25 NBA MVP Award Winner Prediction
NBA Expert Pick: Victor Wembanyama +2000 at FanDuel
Pick by Danny Burke. Find all of Danny’s expert picks now – and get your first week or month 50% off with code “Burke50”
The most anticipated draft pick since LeBron James, Victor Wembanyama more than lived up to the hype in his rookie season. He played in 71 games and averaged 21.4 points, 10.6 rebounds, 4 assists, 3.6 blocks and one steal per game. He also shot just under 80% from the free-throw line and knocked down about two three-pointers per game.
Wembanyama’s performance earned him the Rookie of the Year Award and a second-place finish for the NBA’s Defensive Player of the Year Award. He blocked 6% of opponents’ shots, ranking in the 100th percentile, posted a -8.5 points per 100 possessions allowed, and held opponents to a -1.5% effective field goal percentage.
This season, he’s the heavy favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year, with his shortest odds at -155 on FanDuel. However, my focus is on his MVP potential, where the odds are far more appealing.
While long-shot MVP Award winners are rare, I wouldn’t classify Wembanyama as one, despite his +2000 odds. It might seem unlikely for a second-year player on a team that won only 22 games, but Wembanyama is a generational talent. His combination of length, athleticism, and skill at 7-foot-4 is truly unique.
He is only going to improve in his second year, and with veterans like Chris Paul and Harrison Barnes joining San Antonio’s roster, the offense should expand. While he’ll face tough competition from Luka Doncic, Nikola Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jayson Tatum and several other for this award, his talent and the current odds make him a top MVP candidate.
Assuming Wembanyama’s performance continues to rise and the national spotlight remains on him, he could easily break into the top three MVP contenders. If that happens, we’ll have multiple options: hedge, cash out, or let the bet ride. With his immense talent, he has the potential to get us to that point, which is why I’m placing a bet on him for MVP.
NBA Expert Pick for NBA MVP Award: Victor Wembanyama +2000 at FanDuel
NBA Expert Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander +425 at DraftKings
Pick by Isaiah Sirois.
After almost winning the award last season, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has a great shot to capture the prize this season. The Oklahoma City Thunder managed to win the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference last season, but SGA fell short with the Denver Nuggets and Nikola Jokic keeping pace. That won’t be as easy for them with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope gone.
The Thunder have a deep rotation that ultimately revolves around SGA’s ability to create offense. Their projected starting five of SGA-Luguentz Dort–Jalen Williams–Chet Holmgren–Isaiah Hartenstein will depend upon SGA’s ability to facilitate, especially with Josh Giddey gone. Expect SGA to post impressive numbers in both the points and assist columns.
Ultimately, the logic for this pick comes down to voter tendencies. MVP Award winners have almost always received a healthy number of first-place votes before the year in which they win the title. SGA received 15 first-place votes last season and finished runner-up in the voting.
Speaking of runners-up, players who finished runner-up in MVP Award voting have gone on to win the award the next season with some frequency over the last 10 years, too: We saw this happen in 2013-14 (Kevin Durant), 2017-18 (James Harden), 2022-23 (Joel Embiid) and 2023-24 (Nikola Jokic).
NBA Expert Pick for NBA MVP Award: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander +425 at DraftKings
