The NBA Finals have arrived, and while that means we’re almost at the end of a fantastic basketball season, we’ve at least got the 2024 Paris Olympics coming up with a stacked Team USA roster. Let’s dive into our experts’ picks and predictions for the NBA Finals series between the No. 1 Boston Celtics and No. 5 Dallas Mavericks. Check out our NBA betting model for more picks — or use our NBA player prop betting guide to find sharp plays on your own!
NBA Finals Expert Picks & Predictions for Mavericks-Celtics Series
NBA Finals Expert Picks & Predictions for Mavericks-Celtics Series
NBA Finals Series Odds
Odds via DraftKings
BOS ML: -210 | DAL ML: +175
BOS -1.5: +100 | DAL +1.5: -120
Over 5.5: -165 | Under 5.5: +135
NBA Finals Series Picks & Predictions
@jazzrazdfs – Game 1/Series Winner: Despite having some lackluster showings at times, the Celtics still are the superior team and will show it here. Their offensive and defensive numbers have been fantastic all year and that balance will cause problems for Dallas.
When you have Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic, anything is possible, but the Celtics have a ton of defenders to throw at them. I expect them to get Game 1 at home despite the struggles in their building, setting them up to slowly wear down Dallas. At -130 I like combining a Celtics Game 1 win with them winning the series and hoisting the trophy.
NBA Finals Expert Pick & Prediction: Celtics Game 1/Series -130 at DraftKings
@is_sirois – Game 1/Series Winner: I’m going to echo Ben’s bet here: I want the Celtics to win Game 1 and the NBA Finals. The -130 at DraftKings for this bet is too good of a price to pass up — the same bet is -145 at FanDuel. Ben explained the stat-based edge, let’s dive into the math-based one:
Currently, DraftKings has the Celtics at -210 (67.7%) to win the NBA Finals and -230 (69.7%) to win Game 1. If both events were independent of each other, they’d have parlay odds of +112 (47%); we’re only paying 9.5% extra with this line. That is an underestimation of how significant a Game 1 win would be.
In NBA history, teams that go up 1-0 in the NBA Finals win the series 70.1% of the time. For all seven-game series in NBA history, that win rate improves to 75%. With Boston already a 67.7% favorite before Game 1, paying the extra 9.5% to get this bet at -130 (56.5%) is well worth it. Let’s just hope they don’t come out slow in Game 1.
Finals Expert Pick & Prediction: Celtics Game 1/Series -130 at DraftKings
@shanderbets – Finals MVP: I have the Celtics winning this thing, much like most of you do too. This isn’t the NFL where the quarterback always wins this award, and we’ve already seen some monster performances from Jaylen Brown this postseason.
The Celtics have lagged on defense at the expense of hoisting 45+ 3’s per game, the tempo and scoring alone lends to someone like Brown putting up big numbers. Dallas should have little problem keeping up with the tempo — it’s limiting both Tatum and Brown that’s the issue.
I recommend wagering a half-unit on Brown to be the best in the series — at least on the winning team.
Finals Expert Pick & Prediction: Jaylen Brown Finals MVP +650 at DraftKings
@gehrenbergdfs – Series Winner: The Celtics have been the best team in the NBA all season, ranking first in adjusted offensive rating and second in adjusted net defensive rating.
They are 12-2 in the playoffs with a point differential of 10 points per game. The public is downgrading them for a weak playoff schedule, but Boston is beating up on the opponents it plays.
Finals Expert Pick & Prediction: Celtics Series -210 at DraftKings
