The NBA slate only has four games on Thursday night, but there are still plenty of value spots to be found across betting markets. We’ve highlighted several strong NBA side and prop betting spots in all four matchups, and a play on a high-upside NBA parlays. However, bettors can’t forget about new DFS sites like No House Advantage.
With so many good options, it can be easy to overlook other strong value opportunities. Don’t let that happen with No House Advantage. Stokastic’s custom No House Advantage Stokastic projections make it easy to identify the best spots on their board. The combination of sharp rankings and NHA’s high overlay may for a can’t-miss bankroll builder.
There are two types of contests to play on No House Advantage: “Pick ‘Em” and “Vs. the House.” Let’s analyze our NBA NHA Projections to find the top three plays for tonight’s “Pick Em” GPP style format. If you’re also planning on playing “Vs. the House” you’ll find the best plays listed in our projections as well.
NBA Prop Bets: No House Advantage NBA Props
Walker Kessler Prop: Under 22.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists
When the Utah Jazz traded Rudy Gobert in the offseason, they left a huge void in their defense. First-round rookie Walker Kessler has attempted to fill that gap. Kessler has fared well in his first NBA season and has held his own in the paint despite offering little on the offensive end.
His solid play has been enough to help the Jazz to a surprising 19-21 record, good for 10th place in the Western Conference. The Jazz even started the season out with the conference lead, a remarkable feat given that the team also parted ways with Donovan Mitchell and seemed likely to tank.
Despite Kessler’s success, the Utah Jazz turned back to center Kelly Olynyk following his return from injury on Tuesday. Kessler’s temporary starting spot and plenty of minutes went straight to Olynyk that night.
Fortunately, No House Advantage hasn’t adjusted Kessler’s prop lines enough to account for the decrease in playing time. Our No House Advantage projections have his median outcome at 15.3 points, rebounds and assists. That number is over seven below the line available at No House Advantage, which gives the prop an expected win rate of 97.6%, making it the strongest play in “Pick Em” contests on Thursday’s NBA slate.
Mike Conley: Under 4.5 Rebounds
Olynyk’s return to Utah’s rotation has affected the entire lineup. Kessler had been the main beneficiary of increased minutes, but Stokastic’s NHA projections also expect Olynyk’s steady rebounding rate to limit those nabbed by other players, including Mike Conley.
The veteran guard shouldn’t see a dramatic decrease in shots, but NHA has set his rebounding prop too high given Olynyk’s return to the lineup. Conley’s median rebounding projection is at 2.4 which yields an expected win rate of 93.42%. That’s nowhere near the certainty of Kessler’s prop comes, but it remains a high-value NBA prop opportunity for No House Advantage’s “Pick Em” game.
Jalen Suggs: 20.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists
Jalen Suggs’ line is set too high for a player just now returning from injury. Suggs hasn’t played since he suffered an ankle injury in late November. If Suggs does play on Thursday, the Magic may not feature him in their starting lineup, and he should be on a strict minutes limit. Markelle Fultz has been steady enough as a fill-in, and Orlando’s other young players have continued to gel and soak up usage.
Given the uncertainty of Suggs’ workload, it’s difficult to gauge his median performance. The bar should be set pretty low for the second-year guard. Stokastic’s NHA projections have Suggs set for 15.4 points, rebounds, and assists, which gives the prop an expected win rate of 91.8%. This prop boasts the third-best expected win rate on the NHA board, and it could get even stronger when the Orlando Magic make an official announcement on their starting lineup and any playing restrictions Suggs might have.
