On the heels of Tuesday’s short three-game slate, the NBA has a full twelve-game card for tonight’s action. Several NBA prop betting spots show up as strong values, and bettors can find positive EV plays on PrizePicks. However, some of the the most intriguing spots can be found on No House Advantage. Stokastic’s custom No House Advantage Stokastic projections highlight some great ROI opportunities on tonight’s slate — and there’s also significant overlay.
There are two types of contests to play on No House Advantage: “Pick ‘Em” and “Vs. the House.” The site is brand new, which means there is almost always overlay. In other words, the “Pick Em” contests are guaranteed to have more prizes in their pool than there are entry fees. With the best insights and projections, bettors and DFS players have a lot to analyze in those contests for the best NBA picks on tonight’s slate. If you’re looking to play “Vs the House” be sure to check out our full NBA NHA Projections.
NBA Prop Bets: No House Advantage NBA Props
Thomas Bryant: Under 32.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists
Thomas Bryant has been holding down the paint for the Lakers since Anthony Davis went down. Bryant has consistently gotten a full workload, but his numbers have been inconsistent. This line is inflated by two back-two-back outlier performances in which Bryant put up huge double-doubles. He first scored nineteen points and had seventeen rebounds against the Atlanta Hawks, followed by an eighteen-point, fifteen-rebound outburst versus the Charlotte Hornets.
Unfortunately for the Lakers, the Hornets are one of the weakest defensive teams, especially against big men. Atlanta’s defense is a bit more stout, but the team still lacks a real juggernaut in the paint. That allowed Bryant to take advantage of the smaller Onyeka Okongwu.
The Lakers will next face the Miami Heat, who play much better defense than Charlotte or Atlanta. Stokastic’s projection model factors this in and expects Bryant to go stay under this 32.5 combo NBA prop total. Bryant is projected for 23.1 points, rebounds and assists on Wednesday, which gives this play a 96% chance of winning.
Myles Turner: Under 33.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists
Myles Turner and the Indiana Pacers are in a similar situation to the Lakers on the NHA card, but Turner’s combo line is set even higher than Thomas Bryant’s. We have Turner’s projection at 25.5 points, rebounds and assists. That yields a slightly lower win rate than the previous selection, but a 91.9% shot of hitting is nothing to shy away from.
Trade rumors swirled around Turner all offseason. The Pacers eventually decided to hang onto him, but the veteran center has not improved much since a year ago. Like Bryant, this prop line is inflated by Turner’s recent performance. He posted eighteen points and ten boards on Monday night against the Raptors. That was coming off of a huge 34-point scoring night last week versus the Clippers. Don’t let the recency bias suck you into this one. Stokastic’s NBA NHA model is all over the under.
Tyrese Haliburton: Under 5.5 Rebounds
Along with Turner, Indiana’s entire offense has been trending up. That is not a trend that we expect to continue as they face the Philadelphia 76ers as heavy road underdogs. Tyrese Haliburton’s props have been inflated like Turner’s, which makes the under 5.5 rebounds another strong bet.
This one pops as the fourth-best play in the NHA Pick Em contest format, just below Turner’s combo prop and rebounds. Stokastic’s No House Advantage projections have Haliburton projected for 3.8 rebounds. That gives this under an 86.7% chance of hitting.
Stokastic’s projections recommend shorting the Pacers because the 76ers could run them off the floor. That creates a great correlation spot. Rising tides lift all boats, but if the Pacers get run out of the gym by an elite Sixers squad, then Haliburton’s rebounding numbers are likely to sink alongside his Pacers’ teammate Myles Turner.
