Let’s go — the inaugural edition of this article cashed a +161 ticket on the Dallas Mavericks and Denver Nuggets last night, which will hopefully set the tone moving forward. We’ve got an intriguing post-deadline card on tap that features a pair of televised games on NBA TV: Atlanta Hawks at Philadelphia 76ers and New Orleans Pelicans at Los Angeles Lakers. Sit back, relax and enjoy the analysis as we dive into today’s NBA odds and trends in hopes of finding one or two picks. If you’re hungry for more, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out my guide to NBA player prop betting.
NBA Odds, Trends & Picks Today: Houston & New Orleans Popping
NBA Odds Today: Friday, February 9 | Odds via BetMGM
Atlanta Hawks at Philadelphia 76ers NBA Odds & Trends
ATL: -175 | PHI: +145
ATL -3.5: -115 | PHI +3.5: -105
Over 242.5: -110 | Under 242.5: -110
Game Time: 7 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 1 a.m. ET
The Philadelphia 76ers bought at the deadline, adding Buddy Hield and Cameron Payne to their backcourt. However, they shipped off several reserves, including Jaden Springer, Patrick Beverley and Furkan Korkmaz. They also let go of Danuel House Jr. Hield and Payne are listed as out, as are Joel Embiid, Nicolas Batum, De’Anthony Melton and Robert Covington.
The Atlanta Hawks didn’t move at the deadline, choosing to keep Dejounte Murray, who is questionable for this one. Joining him on the injury report are Clint Capela (out) and De’Andre Hunter (probable). This sets up primarily as a matchup between Trae Young and Tyrese Maxey, and the books are favoring Young on the road.
Atlanta is the NBA’s worst team at covering, sitting at 15-36 ATS, while Philadelphia is an impressive 29-21 ATS. The Hawks are also the NBA’s worst team at covering on the road, sitting at 8-16 ATS and 2-5 ATS as a road favorite. Philadelphia is only 1-3 ATS as a road dog. Both teams are back in action again tomorrow. The lines for this game appear efficient, so I think I’ll sit this one out.
Houston Rockets at Toronto Raptors NBA Odds & Trends
HOU: +120 | TOR: -145
HOU +2.5: -105 | TOR-2.5: -115
Over 232.5: -110 | Under 232.5: -110
Game Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 1 a.m. ET
The Houston Rockets will visit the Toronto Raptors on Friday. The Raptors dealt Dennis Schröder at the deadline but couldn’t move Bruce Brown. They added Kelly Olynyk, who is questionable, and Spencer Dinwiddie, who they intend to cut. This squad needs its new acquisitions in Olynyk (and Ochai Agbaji) to play due to its already thin (and now thinner) rotations.
Houston is a road dog versus the shorthanded Raptors despite only Fred VanVleet and Tari Eason appearing on the injury report. The Rockets are a very solid seventh in net rating over their last seven games (+6) while the Raptors are, uh, a not-so-solid 27th (-12). They needed a late fourth-quarter rally just to beat the Charlotte Hornets earlier this week. The Rockets scored a 29-point home win over the Raptors just last week.
The market has often overrated Toronto this season, as the Raptors are 23-27-1 ATS. Meanwhile, the Rockets are 26-22-2. Toronto improves marginally to 10-13 ATS at home while Houston regresses to 9-13-1 ATS on the road and 7-12-1 ATS as a road dog. Both teams are in action again tomorrow, but Houston is getting an extra day off before this one. While the Rockets are only 4-5 ATS with a rest advantage, the Raptors are an even worse 3-6 ATS with a rest disadvantage.
Washington Wizards at Boston Celtics NBA Odds & Trends
WAS: +1000 | BOS: -2000
WAS +16.5: -105 | BOS -16.5: -115
Over 238.5: -110 | Under 238.5: -110
Game Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 1 a.m. ET
The Washington Wizards will visit the Boston Celtics on Friday. These teams, which once met in the NBA’s inaugural play-in tournament, have since moved in dramatically different directions — the Wizards are now a tank squad while the Celtics are now a championship favorite. Washington shipped off center Daniel Gafford while Boston added new pieces in Jaden Springer and Xavier Tillman Sr.
The Celtics are listing Jayson Tatum as questionable for this one due to an illness, but they’re still trading as massive favorites. The Wizards have a clean injury report save for Marvin Bagley III. Washington will have to play again on Saturday, but Boston will get a night off before playing the Sacramento Kings on Super Bowl Sunday.
Boston is 24-25-2 ATS this season while Washington is 23-26-1. Boston improves slightly to 14-13 ATS at home while Washington jumps to 15-9-1 ATS on the road. I’m not excited about this game and have absolutely no desire to bet on either the spread or the total. Boston’s moneyline doesn’t offer nearly enough value to throw it in a parlay, either.
OddsShopper’s NBA ROI | NBA Model Picks Today
In this simulation of our NBA betting tools, bettors who maxed out their bankrolls profited MORE than those who placed only 40 bets, but all still secured a significant positive return.
Charlotte Hornets at Milwaukee Bucks NBA Odds & Trends
CHA: +650 | MIL: -1100
CHA +14.5: -110 | MIL -14.5: -110
Over 232.5: -105 | Under 232.5: -115
Game Time: 8 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 1 a.m. ET
The Milwaukee Bucks got waxed by the Minnesota Timberwolves last night, but Damian Lillard and Khris Middleton both sat out and few of Milwaukee’s key pieces played more than 30 minutes, with Giannis Antetokounmpo playing 27 and Brook Lopez playing 26. Meanwhile, the Charlotte Hornets sold a few more pieces, namely P.J. Washington and Gordon Hayward, and they’ve already ruled out LaMelo Ball.
Milwaukee is trading as a massive 14.5-point home favorite for this one. Lillard and Middleton may continue to sit, but we should see Giannis and Lopez on the floor. The Bucks added Patrick Beverley at the deadline and haven’t announced whether he’ll play on Friday, but it’s always unlikely to see a just-dealt player suit up so quickly. Then again, Doc Rivers works in mysterious ways.
I’m also passing on this game. I have no interest in trusting 19-32-1 ATS Milwaukee or 18-32 ATS Charlotte to cover. If I had to pick a side, the Bucks are a slightly more palatable 10-15-1 ATS at home, far better than the Hornets, who are 8-16 ATS on the road. Their 8-5 ATS with a rest advantage is also encouraging. But again, I’m sitting this one out.
Denver Nuggets at Sacramento Kings NBA Odds & Trends
DEN: -105 | SAC: -115
DEN +0.5: -105 | SAC -0.5: -115
Over 232.5: -110 | Under 232.5: -110
Game Time: 10 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 1 a.m. ET
The Denver Nuggets just beat the Los Angeles Lakers on Kobe Bryant Night, which is just as much an indict of the 2023-24 Lakers as it is a testament to the 2023-24 Nuggets’ ability to step up in big games. Unfortunately, tonight’s road trip to Sacramento carries no such significance. Denver lost by seven in Sacramento earlier this season in a game Jamal Murray missed.
The big question the books are asking us with this game is simple: Should the Nuggets ever be dogs against the Kings? It’s a good one, too. The Kings are coming off one night of rest after a bitter loss to the Detroit Pistons, and they are 12-8 ATS after a loss this season. They’re also 10-4-1 ATS with a rest advantage. Meanwhile, Denver is 3-6 ATS with a rest disadvantage (albeit with an average margin of victory of 2.7) and a league-worst 1-5 ATS without rest (-1.7 average MOV).
But the fact Denver is coming into this one without rest matters much less when you consider their game on Thursday was their first since last Sunday. The Nuggets knew what was coming on this road trip, and they had plenty of time to prepare. Further, they won’t even have to play again until next Monday. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray played 36 minutes apiece, but they should be full-speed for Friday.
New Orleans Pelicans at Los Angeles Lakers NBA Odds & Trends
Pelicans: -105 | Lakers: -115
Pelicans +0.5: -105 | Lakers -0.5: -115
Over 235.5: -110 | Under 235.5: -110
Game Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 1 a.m. ET
As mentioned above, the Los Angeles Lakers fumbled a game to the Denver Nuggets on Kobe Bryant Night. They’ll get to host the New Orleans Pelicans tomorrow. Like the Nuggets, they come into this back-to-back after a good bit of rest, as they had two days off before Thursday’s game, and they won’t have to play again until next Tuesday. Still, I just don’t see why they should be favored.
The Lakers are a bad 24-30 ATS on the year, but the Pelicans are an impressive 29-21-1. Sure, L.A. has been less terrible at home at 11-14 ATS, but New Orleans is a winning 14-10-1 ATS on the road. The Pels are 10-4-1 ATS as a road dog while the Lakers are 9-10 ATS as a home favorite.
Uncertainty in the Lakers’ camp makes me want to buy New Orleans. Back-to-backs always present a risk of LeBron James or Anthony Davis sitting, no matter how much rest they’re entering with, and D’Angelo Russell was a late scratch for Thursday. The Lakers are an NBA-worst 1-7 ATS without rest, too, and are 4-10 ATS with a rest disadvantage. The Pelicans are a steady 8-5 ATS with a rest advantage.
However, the Pelicans have injury questions of their own — Jonas Valanciunas (questionable), Zion Williamson (questionable) and Naji Marshall (questionable) are all on the report, creating holes Anthony Davis could exploit, and unlike the Lakers, the Pels will have to play again tomorrow. Still, they’re going to be one of my NBA picks today.
NBA Picks Today: Friday, February 9
I like Houston and New Orleans today. Houston is playing solid, efficient basketball, while Toronto is not, and roster changes will hurt the latter team far more than the former. I sincerely don’t think the Rockets should be dogs. I recommend backing them to win outright for odds of +120 right now, but I’d buy them down to +100 for a unit.
New Orleans gets a reeling Los Angeles team that has routinely underperformed without rest this season. While the injury tags for Williamson and Valanciunas are concerning, the Lakers aren’t exactly healthy themselves, and New Orleans’ net rating over the last seven (+1.3) far outpaces what Los Angeles has put together (-2.5). I like New Orleans down to -110 for another unit.
NBA Pick Today #1: HOU ML +120 at MGM
NBA Pick Today #2: NOP ML -105 at MGM
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2023-24 NBA predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this NBA season — make sure to check out the rest of our NBA articles. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
