Good morning, degenerates! In this new column, we’ll be previewing the day’s NBA slate with a pick or two — if there’s value — from the opening odds. On Thursday, February 8, the NBA is offering up a nine-game slate. We’ve got NBA on TNT, too, with the Dallas Mavericks visiting the New York Knicks early and the Denver Nuggets visiting the Los Angeles Lakers late. Sit back, relax and enjoy the analysis as we dive into today’s NBA odds in hopes of finding one or two lines worthy of picking. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out my guide to NBA player prop betting.
NBA Odds, Trends & Picks Today: Dallas & Denver Underpriced
NBA Odds Today: Thursday, February 8 | Odds via BetMGM
San Antonio Spurs at Orlando Magic NBA Odds & Trends
Spurs: +475 | Magic: -650
Spurs +11.5: -115 | Magic -11.5: -105
Over 225.5: -110 | Under 225.5: -110
Game Time: 7 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 2 a.m. ET
The San Antonio Spurs are coming off a loss to the Miami Heat last night, so we’ll have to wait for their injury report, but the Magic are healthy for this one and are an 11.5-point home favorite accordingly. I’m not eager to jump on either side of this one, but let’s look at the trends anyway.
The Spurs are 3-5 ATS both without rest and with a rest disadvantage. They’re 24-27 overall as well. The Magic are an NBA-best 33-18 ATS this season and are 7-3 ATS as home favorites, but they’re a disappointing 4-6 ATS with a rest advantage. Should they cover? Yes. Will I bet on them to cover? No.
The total is slightly more interesting. Orlando is 7-3 to the over with a rest advantage while San Antonio is 5-3 to the over without rest. The 225.5 isn’t that high by today’s NBA standards. That isn’t enough of an edge for me to want action on the over, but we could see this one close a little bit higher.
Golden State Warriors at Indiana Pacers NBA Odds & Trends
Warriors: +200 | Pacers: -250
Warriors +6.5: -115 | Pacers -6.5: -105
Over 250.5: -110 | Under 250.5: -110
Game Time: 7 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 2 a.m. ET
The injury report for this one is disgusting. The Indiana Pacers are listing six players as questionable, including Tyrese Haliburton, Bennedict Mathurin and Jalen Smith. The Golden State Warriors are on the wrong end of a back-to-back but were able to keep all their starters under 30 minutes.
Trends-wise, the Warriors are an unremarkable 24-23-1 ATS this season, while the Pacers are a solid 28-22-3. Golden State is also 4-4-1 ATS without rest and 4-3-1 ATS with a rest disadvantage. Indiana has gone a solid 6-4 ATS with a rest advantage but is only 7-8-1 ATS as a home favorite.
The total for this one is the highest on the slate at a jaw-dropping 250.5, but with the Pacers sitting at 30-21-2 to the over and Golden State at 28-20, it shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. The Warriors are also 7-2 to the over without rest. I may end up with action on this game but not with the current state of the injury report. Gross.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Brooklyn Nets NBA Odds & Trends
Cavaliers: -250 | Nets: +195
Cavaliers -6.5: -105 | Nets +6.5: -115
Over 224.5: -110 | Under 224.5: -110
When: 7:30 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 2 a.m. ET
The Cleveland Cavaliers took down the Washington Wizards in an unnecessarily close contest last night, which forced both Jarrett Allen and Donovan Mitchell to play 36-plus minutes. They’ll now play the Brooklyn Nets on the road.
The injury report for Brooklyn isn’t pretty: they have ruled out Dorian Finney-Smith, Cameron Johnson, Day’Ron Sharpe and Lonnie Walker IV. It’s unclear what the Cavs will do, but Evan Mobley sat the last time the Cavs were on a back-to-back while Darius Garland did not.
The Cavs have won their last four versus Brooklyn dating back to December 2022. This season, Cleveland is a solid 26-21-2 ATS but only 2-4-1 ATS without rest. Brooklyn is 23-25-2 ATS but is 6-2-1 ATS with a rest advantage. The Cavs also lead the NBA in net rating over the last 15 (+14.4), but the Nets are a not-terrible 15th (+0.1). Brooklyn won’t just roll over, and I don’t hate backing them to cover.
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Dallas Mavericks at New York Knicks NBA Odds & Trends
Mavericks: -155 | Knicks: +125
Mavericks -3.5: -110 | Knicks +3.5: -110
Over 232.5: -110 | Under 232.5: -110
Game Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 2 a.m. ET
If you are tired of hearing about injuries, you’re betting on the wrong sport. Neither of these teams played last night, but both have numerous key pieces listed with injury designations, including Luka Doncic (probable), Kyrie Irving (probable) and Jalen Brunson (questionable)
The New York Knicks are in a tough spot here, having already ruled out OG Anunoby, Quentin Grimes and Julius Randle. The Dallas Mavericks are finally getting to roll with their two superstars again, and a trip to Madison Square Garden to face a shorthanded Tom Thibodeau squad could be just what the doctor ordered.
Still, it’s worth noting that the market routinely underrates New York. The Knicks are 29-20-2 ATS this season, far better than 26-25 Dallas. The Knicks are also 15-9-1 ATS at home and 3-1-1 ATS as a home dog. Encouragingly, the Mavs are 15-9 ATS on the road and 10-2 ATS as a road favorite. The Mavs are on the early card. We’ll score some major closing line value (CLV) if Brunson sits.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Milwaukee Bucks NBA Odds & Trends
Timberwolves: +105 | Bucks: -125
Timberwolves +1.5: -110 | Bucks -1.5: -110
Over 227.5: -110 | Under 227.5: -110
Game Time: 8 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 2 a.m. ET
The Minnesota Timberwolves are good, but they’re still trading as road dogs to the floundering Milwaukee Bucks. The Wolves have a clean injury report. The Bucks do not: Giannis Antetokounmpo (probable), Jae Crowder (probable), Brook Lopez (probable) and Damian Lillard (questionable) are on it.
The Wolves are fifth in net rating this year (+5.7) while the Bucks are 10th (+3.3). Over the last 15 games, the Wolves are eighth (+6.3) while the Bucks are 14th (+0.5). Minnesota is 25-24-2 ATS while Milwaukee is 19-31-1 — third-worst in the NBA. Milwaukee improves to a not-as-terrible 10-14-1 ATS at home while Minnesota regresses to 12-15 ATS on the road.
I’m not buying Milwaukee at this price, but I’m not eager to get action on Minnesota, either. Still, I don’t mind playing them as a road dog if you’re fiending for action on this game, especially with the current state of Milwaukee’s injury report — and with the Bucks back in action again on Friday.
Chicago Bulls at Memphis Grizzlies NBA Odds & Trends
Bulls: -225 | Grizzlies: +180
Bulls -5.5: -110 | Grizzlies +5.5: -110
Over 213.5: -110 | Under 213.5: -110
Game Time: 8 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 2 a.m. ET
This game is a tough one to handicap with the trade deadline looming. The Memphis Grizzlies just dealt Xavier Tillman Sr. and have almost their whole roster on the injury report. The Chicago Bulls have also handed out a larger-than-usual number of injury tags.
For Chicago, Alex Caruso (probable), Coby White (probable), Dalen Terry (probable), Torrey Craig (questionable) Patrick Williams (out) and, of course, Zach LaVine (out) are the big names on the injury report. For Memphis, that’s Jaren Jackson Jr. (questionable), Derrick Rose (questionable), Ziaire Williams (doubtful), and, of course, Ja Morant (out), Desmond Bane (out), Brandon Clarke (out) and Marcus Smart (out).
The Bulls should probably be favored by a wider margin considering the Grizzlies are likely to rely on such a tight rotation (Scotty Pippen Jr. minutes, anyone?), but I’m not eager to risk my hard-earned money on a team that’s actively shopping so many pieces. That said, I could throw Chicago’s moneyline into a ticket before tip-off if the news breaks the right way.
Utah Jazz at Phoenix Suns NBA Odds & Trends
Jazz: +230 | Suns: -275
Jazz +6.5: -105 | Suns -6.5: -115
Over 242.5: -110 | Under 242.5: -110
Game Time: 9 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 2 a.m. ET
I might be a fool, but I believe in what the Phoenix Suns are doing. They rank seventh in net rating over the last 15 games (+6.4), ahead of the ninth-ranked Utah Jazz (+3.2), as their new Big Three is finally getting to play extended minutes together — although Bradley Beal (questionable) is iffy tonight.
Still, the Suns are a public team, and they are a brutal 20-29-2 ATS this year, fourth-worst in the NBA. They’re a terrible 8-17-1 ATS at home but are a slightly less bad 7-14-1 ATS as a home favorite. Meanwhile, the always-underrated Jazz are 30-21-1 ATS. That said, Utah’s advantage has primarily come at home — the Jazz are only 12-15-1 ATS on the road and 9-13-1 ATS as a road dog.
These teams have met three times this season, and the Suns won all three contests, extending their win streak to five games. Utah last beat Phoenix in November 2022. The Jazz haven’t won in the Footprint Center since Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell were still in town. But with the market so high on Phoenix, I’m not running to the window to buy them at -6.5 or -275 outright.
Detroit Pistons at Portland Trail Blazers NBA Odds & Trends
Pistons: +170 | Trail Blazers: -210
Pistons +5.5: -115 | Trail Blazers -5.5: -110
Over 229.5: -110 | Under 229.5: -110
Game Time: 10 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 2 a.m. ET
The Detroit Pistons scored their third road win of the season over the Sacramento Kings last night. They’ll get a possibly shorthanded Portland Trail Blazers team that listed Jerami Grant (probable) Jabari Walker (probable), Deandre Ayton (questionable), Scoot Henderson (questionable and Shaedon Sharpe (out) on the injury report.
The Pistons can’t win, but they can cover. Detroit is 24-25-1 ATS this season with a winning 12-11 ATS record as a road dog. The Blazers also can’t win, but they’re covering at a similar clip. They’re 25-25 ATS but are 1-3 ATS as a home favorite. Detroit is a neutral 4-4 ATS without rest and Portland is a neutral 6-6 ATS with a rest advantage.
Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Lakers NBA Odds & Trends
Nuggets: -165 | Lakers: +140
Nuggets -3.5: -110 | Lakers +3.5: -110
Over 231.5: -110 | Under 231.5: -110
Game Time: 10 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 2 a.m. ET
In the slate’s nightcap, the Denver Nuggets will visit the Los Angeles Lakers. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (questionable), LeBron James (questionable), Anthony Davis (questionable) and Jarred Vanderbilt (out) are on the injury report. D’Angelo Russell, despite undergoing a “tuneup procedure,” is not.
I have no idea what head coach Darvin Ham meant about this tuneup operation, but I wouldn’t put it past him to make Russell a late add to the injury report. Regardless, Ham’s Lakers are a brutal 24-29 ATS this season, while the Nuggets are an even worse 21-28-2. The Lakers tick up to 11-13 ATS at home while the Nuggets dip to 9-16-1 ATS on the road. Denver is just 6-13-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Neither one of these teams has been in good form lately. Denver is 11th in net rating over the last 15 (+1.5) while Los Angeles is 16th (-0.3). But the Nuggets are on a two-game winning streak versus the Lakers (six if you count the postseason), and while the market has begun to overrate them, it’s also overrating the Lakers.
NBA Picks Today: Thursday, February 9
I’ve got a pretty simple plan of attack for Thursday’s card. First, I trust the Nuggets to keep their winning streak versus the Lakers alive. The Lakers have been off since Monday while the Nuggets have been off since Sunday, but both squads will be back in action again tomorrow, so there’s a non-zero chance that Ham opts to sit one of Anthony Davis or LeBron James. The looming trade deadline could also mess with the availability of role players, including the “tuned-up” D’Angelo Russell.
Second, I don’t understand the market’s faith in the Knicks. If New York doesn’t have Jalen Brunson tomorrow, the Mavs should roll. If New York does have Brunson tomorrow, it’ll be him and Donte DiVincenzo against a Mavs team that has rolled over the last three with both Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving back, ranking third in net rating (+5.3), edging out 15th-ranked New York (+1.7). The spread has already moved from -2 to -3.5, but enough value remains on the moneyline for this one.
NBA Pick Today: DAL/DEN ML +161 at Hard Rock
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