Happy Valentine’s Day! If you’re perusing the internet seeking out sports betting advice today, and not tips on how to woo your significant other — or, you know, how to not wind up alone again next year — I salute you. You’re my kind of person. Anyway, sit back, relax and enjoy the analysis as we dive into today’s NBA odds and trends in hopes of finding one or two picks. If you’re hungry for more, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out my guide to NBA player prop betting.
NBA Odds, Trends & Picks Today: Serious Value Out West
NBA Odds Today: Wednesday, February 14 | Odds via BetMGM
This article was originally written at 1 a.m. ET; line movement notes are from 10:30 a.m. ET.
Atlanta Hawks at Charlotte Hornets NBA Odds & Trends
ATL: -275 | CHA: +220
ATL -6.5: -110 | CHA +6.5: -115
Over 238.5: -105 | Under 238.5: -115
Game Time: 7 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 10:30 a.m. ET
The Atlanta Hawks and Charlotte Hornets will enter the All-Star Break with a head-to-head matchup. Neither team is on pace for the seasons they hoped for. The injury reports reveal Charlotte will remain without LaMelo Ball, but Cody Martin and the team’s trade acquisitions are available. Atlanta won’t have its top centers, Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu.
Forced to play small, Atlanta will likely use Jalen Johnson and Bruno Fernando at the five. Still, the development isn’t scaring the oddsmakers much, as the Hawks are a 7.5-point road favorite. Atlanta is an NBA-worst 17-37 ATS this year, but Charlotte isn’t much better at 20-33. I’m not eager to get action on either of these teams, but the rebound player prop markets could have value.
Line movement notes: Atlanta’s advantage has tightened from 7.5 to 6.5.
New York Knicks at Orlando Magic NBA Odds & Trends
NYK: +135 | ORL: -160
NYK +3.5: -110 | ORL -3.5: -110
Over 211.5: -110 | Under 211.5: -110
Game Time: 7 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 10:30 a.m. ET
The Orlando Magic, fresh off a stomping by the Oklahoma City Thunder, will host the New York Knicks in a home-and-home on Wednesday. The Knicks are a slight favorite despite the absences of Julius Randle and OG Anunoby and both Donte DiVincenzo and Isaiah Hartenstein picking up questionable tags. Orlando’s injury report is TBA.
Both the Magic and Knicks have covered at a high clip this season. New York sits at 29-23-2 ATS while Orlando leads the NBA at 35-19. Still, the Magic have been trending down lately, illustrated by their big loss to the Thunder on Tuesday. With New York sitting at 9-3 ATS as a road favorite, I’m intrigued. Orlando is a decent 7-5 ATS as a home dog, though. The lack of rest isn’t a big source of edge — the Knicks are only 6-6 ATS with a rest advantage while the Magic are 5-5 without rest.
Line movement notes: the total for this one has dropped three points from where it opened (214.5).
Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers NBA Odds & Trends
MIA: +140 | PHI: -165
MIA +3.5: -105 | PHI -2.5: -115
Over 223.5: -110 | Under 223.5: -110
Game Time: 7 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 10:30 a.m. ET
The Miami Heat embarrassed the Milwaukee Bucks on Tuesday, but they’ll now have to play the Philadelphia 76ers on Wednesday. The 76ers have ruled out Tobias Harris for this one with Nicolas Batum, Robert Covington, De’Anthony Melton and Joel Embiid all still banged up. Miami’s injury report is TBA, but I suspect Jimmy Butler will remain out.
The Heat have gone a shaky 25-28-1 ATS this year, far worse than the 76ers, who have gone 31-22. However, the winds are shifting in the Eastern Conference. While Philadelphia’s banged-up roster did just score a win over the Cleveland Cavaliers on Monday, the club is 6-13 SU without Embiid this year. I’m unlikely to touch this game until we get a sense of who Miami has available — but a Tyrese Maxey points under could be on the card.
Line movement notes: Philadelphia’s advantage has grown by a point since the team opened at -2.5.
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Brooklyn Nets at Boston Celtics NBA Odds & Trends
BKN: +625 | BOS: -1000
BKN +13.5: -115 | BOS -13.5: -105
Over 228.5: -110 | Under 228.5: -110
Game Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 10:30 a.m. ET
The Brooklyn Nets and Boston Celtics will do battle for the second night in a row, merely changing venues for the rematch. Both injury reports are TBA, but forward Cameron Johnson is expected to return, which would likely lead Jacque Vaughn to slide Dorian Finney-Smith back to the bench unit. The Celtics will likely rest Al Horford as they have in most back-to-backs.
Boston is an iffy 24-27-3 ATS this season, improving slightly to a breakeven 14-14 ATS at home. Brooklyn is a similarly iffy 24-26-3 ATS and slips to 9-13 ATS on the road. The Celtics have handled no-rest situations well, going 5-4 ATS, while Brooklyn has not, going 2-4-1 ATS. I’m passing on this one.
Line movement notes: Boston’s advantage has increased by a point while the total has ticked up by two.
Chicago Bulls at Cleveland Cavaliers NBA Odds & Trends
CHI: +340 | CLE: -450
CHI +9.5: -110 | CLE -9.5: -110
Over 224.5: -110 | Under 224.5: -110
Game Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 10:30 a.m. ET
Neither the Chicago Bulls nor the Cleveland Cavaliers played last night, and neither will have to play again on Thursday. The Bulls don’t have any notable injuries to report other than Alex Caruso (questionable). The Cavs’ starters have a clean bill of health, with only reserve Dean Wade (questionable) a possible missing piece of their rotation.
The seemingly unstoppable Cavs were stopped by the shorthanded Philadelphia 76ers on Monday, but I suspect they’ll bounce back. Cleveland is an impressive 9-5-2 ATS after a loss. Chicago, who just upset the Atlanta Hawks, is a solid 13-11 ATS after a win. While Cleveland’s 28-22-2 ATS record is more impressive than Chicago’s 28-25-1 ATS record, the Cavs drop to 13-12-1 ATS at home. Similarly, Chicago also regresses to 14-13 ATS on the road.
Line movement notes: Cleveland’s advantage has grown by a point while the total has ticked up by three.
Indiana Pacers at Toronto Raptors NBA Odds & Trends
IND: -155 | TOR: +125
IND -3.5: -105 | TOR +3.5: -115
Over 245.5: -115 | Under 245.5: -105
Game Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 1 a.m. ET
The Indiana Pacers will visit the Toronto Raptors on Wednesday. Toronto just dropped one game to the San Antonio Spurs and nearly dropped another to the Houston Rockets’ reserves, so they don’t inspire much confidence. Still, this is a difficult game to handicap with Tyrese Haliburton and Bennedict Mathurin questionable.
Indiana has been decent at covering (29-24-3 ATS), far better than Toronto (24-29-1 ATS). The Pacers are also a profitable road team, going 14-11-1 ATS, while the Raptors are a not-so-profitable team at home, going 11-15 ATS. Toronto’s perimeter defense has played terribly of late, and I may end up with action on one of Indiana’s shooters — perhaps even Pascal Siakam in his return to Scotiabank Arena.
Line movement notes: The total for Wednesday’s Pacers-Raptors game has already ticked up by three.
Houston Rockets at Memphis Grizzlies NBA Odds & Trends
HOU: -140 | MEM: +115
HOU -2.5: -110 | MEM +2.5: -110
Over 219.5: -115 | Under 219.5: -105
Game Time: 8 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 10:30 a.m. ET
The Houston Rockets draw a road matchup with the Memphis Grizzlies that the books expect them to win. Both sides got a night off on Tuesday, but the Grizzlies will have to play again on Thursday when they host the Milwaukee Bucks. Fred VanVleet remains out for Houston. Memphis remains riddled with injuries, which now include Scotty Pippen Jr.
Memphis should get smacked here. The Grizzlies are a not-that-terrible 25-29 ATS, but Houston is a profitable 27-24-2 ATS. The Rockets struggle majorly on the road, as they have gone 9-15-1 ATS when playing away from home, but they improve to 2-1 ATS as a road favorite. Memphis is an atrocious 9-16 ATS at home, improving slightly to 7-10 ATS as a home dog, but they haven’t kept a game against Houston within seven points — let alone five — this season.
Line movement notes: Houston’s advantage has shrunk from the 4.5-point opening number to 2.5; it’s worth noting that the spread opened at 3.5, not 4.5, on Pinnacle.
Washington Wizards at New Orleans Pelicans NBA Odds & Trends
WAS: +600 | NOP: -900
WAS +12.5: -110 | NOP -12.5: -110
Over 235.5: -110 | Under 235.5: -110
Game Time: 8 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 10:30 a.m. ET
The New Orleans Pelicans will get their turn versus the tanking Washington Wizards on Wednesday. The Wiz nearly upset the Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday before remembering that they’re trying to lose. Washington is healthy but New Orleans could be without Zion Williamson (questionable) and will be without Dyson Daniels.
New Orleans is an impressive 30-23-1 ATS this season, but they slide to 15-10 ATS at home and 10-7 ATS as a home favorite. Washington sits at 25-27-1 ATS this season with a surprisingly profitable 17-9-1 ATS record on the road, only losing games by an average margin of 7.5 points. I’m not going to plug my nose and trust Kyle Kuzma or Jordan Poole to cover this spread, but there’s probably an edge to be found in doing so.
Line movement notes: Very little movement here. The total has ticked down by one point.
San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks NBA Odds & Trends
SAS: +425 | DAL: -600
SAS +11.5: -115 | DAL -11.5: -105
Over 242.5: -110 | Under 242.5: -110
Game Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 10:30 a.m. ET
The San Antonio Spurs, fresh off a triple-double from Victor Wembanyama, will play Luka Doncic (probable), Kyrie Irving (probable) and the Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday. The Mavs are expected to win this one and could even have Dereck Lively II (questionable) back. Wembanyama is expected to have most of his usual supporting cast.
The Spurs have struggled to cover this year, going 25-29 ATS. Dallas has gone a decent 28-26 ATS. However, Dallas plummets to 12-17 ATS at home and 7-10 ATS as a home favorite. San Antonio is a still-bad 13-15 ATS on the road, but with them catching double-digit points, they’re likely the sharper side of this one.
Line movement notes: The total has ticked up by one point.
Detroit Pistons at Phoenix Suns NBA Odds & Trends
DET: +625 | PHX: -1000
DET +13.5: -115 | PHX -13.5: -1105
Over 234.5: -110 | Under 234.5: -110
Game Time: 9 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 10:30 a.m. ET
This game is a tough one to cap. The Phoenix Suns just lost Bradley Beal to another injury last night, and it’s TBD how long he’ll miss, but it’s likely he’ll skip this one. The tanking Pistons have seemingly packed it in, playing Cade Cunningham and Jalen Duren for fewer minutes than, uh, Simone Fontecchio and Evan Fournier last night.
It’s possible the Pistons were sandbagging by keeping Cunningham and Duren under the 30-minute mark on Tuesday. If that’s the case, the shorthanded Suns may have their work cut out for them. Phoenix is a breakeven 4-4 ATS without rest while Detroit is a marginally better 5-4 ATS in such situations. Detroit is a decent 14-12 ATS as a road dog, losing by an average of only 9.8 points, while Phoenix is 9-14-1 ATS as a home favorite, winning by an average of only 4.1.
Line movement notes: The spread remains unchanged, but the total has cratered by five points.
Sacramento Kings at Denver Nuggets NBA Odds & Trends
SAC: +170 | DEN: -210
SAC +5.5: -115 | DEN -5.5: -105
Over 229.5: -110 | Under 229.5: -110
Game Time: 10 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 10:30 a.m. ET
The Sacramento Kings are coming off the aforementioned tough loss to the Phoenix Suns. De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis both played 39-plus minutes and scored 35-plus points. I doubt either gets the night off, but fading this team versus a Denver Nuggets squad that got a night off should prove sharp — although Jamal Murray (questionable) may miss this one.
Denver has gone a disappointing 22-30-2 ATS this season. Sacramento sits at a solid 27-25-1 ATS. The Kings tick up to 16-12-1 ATS on the road, but games without rest have been a problem, as Sacramento sits at 2-5 ATS without rest. Denver is 12-12-1 ATS at home, winning by an average margin of 9.7, but is 4-7-1 ATS with a rest advantage. I’d buy Denver to cover if we knew Murray was playing, but because we don’t, I’ll pass.
Line movement notes: Denver’s advantage has shrunk by one point.
Los Angeles Lakers at Utah Jazz NBA Odds & Trends
LAL: +170 | UTA: -210
LAL +5.5: -110 | UTA -5.5: -110
Over 240.5: -110 | Under 240.5: -110
Game Time: 9 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 10:30 a.m. ET
The Los Angeles Lakers took down the Detroit Pistons on Tuesday, and they only needed 31 minutes from LeBron James and 28 from Anthony Davis to do so. They’ll visit the Utah Jazz on Wednesday, who are on the first leg of a home-and-home. The Jazz haven’t ruled out anyone. The Lakers’ injury report is TBA.
The Jazz are known as a great home team like the Denver Nuggets, and this year, their record backs it up. Utah is 18-7 ATS at home, which makes them the most profitable home team in the NBA. L.A. is a bad 11-16 ATS on the road — but the club improves to 9-8 ATS as a road dog. However, the Lakers are just 2-7 ATS without rest, and the Jazz are 9-2 ATS as a home favorite. Welcome to the card, Utah!
Line movement notes: I bought Utah at -2.5 (1 a.m. ET) before LeBron James ruled himself out (1:15 a.m. ET); this spread has since moved by three points.
Los Angeles Clippers at Golden State Warriors NBA Odds & Trends
LAC: +140 | GSW: -165
LAC +2.5: -105 | GSW -2.5: -115
Over 234.5: -105 | Under 234.5: -115
Game Time: 10 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 10:30 a.m. ET
Both the Los Angeles Clippers and Golden State Warriors avoided playing on Tuesday, but the Warriors will have to visit the Utah Jazz on Thursday. The Clippers have already ruled out Kawhi Leonard with a left adductor strain, while the Dubs enter this one fully healthy aside from Chris Paul, who continues to recover from a hand injury.
I would be jumping on the Clippers in this spot if Leonard hadn’t just gone down. But without him, I’m much less confident in this squad, especially against a Warriors team that is beginning to click. Both sides have been profitable against the spread this season, with Golden State at 27-23-1 and L.A. at 28-24, but Golden State’s 11-15-1 ATS record at home is a concern, while L.A.’s 14-12 ATS record on the road is encouraging. But with the Clippers sitting at 2-5 ATS as a road dog, I’m passing.
The Clippers have drawn some sharp action — this spread has tightened in their favor by two points. The total has also ticked up by three.
NBA Picks: Wednesday, February 14
We nailed our one bet for Tuesday — Oklahoma City -2.5 — so let’s keep the momentum rolling with these picks for Wednesday.
First, I’m ready to get hurt again, give me Houston -3.5 at Hard Rock. The Rockets should dismantle a Memphis team that needs to get back on the floor tomorrow. Houston has covered this number versus Memphis in three straight games.
Second, give me Utah -2.5 at BetMGM. The Jazz could close as a larger favorite if head coach Darvin Ham rests anyone on this back-to-back set. Yes, Utah has to play again tomorrow, but their fantastic home record speaks for itself. The Jazz covered this number at home versus L.A. back in January, too.
NBA Pick Today #1: HOU -3.5 -115 at Hard Rock
NBA Pick Today #2: UTA -2.5 -115 at BetMGM
– OR –
NBA Pick Today #3: HOU ML/UTA ML +167 at BetMGM
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