Thursday brings us a solid NBA slate. We’ve got a pair of games to watch via NBA on TNT: the Phoenix Suns will visit the Boston Celtics early, then the Dallas Mavericks will visit the Oklahoma City Thunder late. Let’s break down today’s slate and dive into today’s NBA odds and trends in hopes of finding one or two NBA picks. If you’re hungry for more, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out my guide to NBA player prop betting.
NBA Odds & Trends Today: Celtics & Clippers Stand Out
NBA Odds & Trends Today: Thursday, March 14 | Odds via BetMGM
This article was originally written at 12:30 a.m. ET; line movement written at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Phoenix Suns at Boston Celtics NBA Odds & Trends
PHX: +195 | BOS: -250
PHX +5.5: -105 | BOS -5.5: -115
Over 227.5: -105 | Under 227.5: -115
Game Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 11:30 a.m. ET
In the slate’s marquee matchup, the Boston Celtics will host the Phoenix Suns on NBA on TNT. The Suns are still fighting to stay above the play-in tournament while the Celtics are nearly 10 games up on the next-best Eastern Conference teams. Boston’s massive advantage means they can take the rest of the regular season somewhat carefully.
The Celtics have a few players on the injury report, with Kristaps Porzingis (out) and Jaylen Brown (questionable) the big names to know. The Suns are trending in the right direction: Devin Booker is back, but Josh Okogie (out) and Eric Gordon (questionable) are now banged up.
While Boston has been dominant in the win column this year, the Celtics are only 33-29-3 ATS. To their credit, their 18-14 ATS record at home is impressive, and both records are far better than what we’ve seen out of the Suns. Phoenix is a near-NBA worst 25-38-2 ATS. Their 13-16-1 ATS record on the road isn’t as terrible, but it’s still not good.
The big problem for Phoenix in this spot is having to play again tomorrow. The Suns will visit the Charlotte Hornets at 7 p.m. on Friday, which will be their fourth game in three days. Meanwhile, after tomorrow’s game, the Celtics are off until Sunday’s road date with the Washington Wizards.
Line movement updates: The moneyline (was -225) and spread (was -5.5 -110) have moved marginally in Boston’s favor.
Los Angeles Clippers at Chicago Bulls NBA Odds & Trends
LAC: -250 | CHI: +195
LAC -5.5: -115 | CHI +5.5: -105
Over 214.5: -105 | Under 214.5: -115
Game Time: 8 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 11:30 a.m. ET
The Los Angeles Clippers will get the Chicago Bulls on Thursday, which is a great spot for them, as the Bulls just barely beat the Indiana Pacers in overtime on Wednesday. The Bulls are in a bit of a weird spot — they’re 4.5 games out of the No. 6 but are also six games ahead of the No. 11 seed, so, barring something wild, they’re in the play-in. Meanwhile, the Clippers have a 7.5 game-gap over the No. 6 seed.
The injury report for this one is subject to change. The Bulls aren’t really in a spot where they can afford to rest their starters, but DeMar DeRozan (44 minutes) and Nikola Vucevic (43 minutes) just got an absolute ton of run. Point guard Coby White also went down with a hip injury late in regulation. The Clippers list James Harden (questionable), Kawhi Leonard (questionable) and Russell Westbrook (out) on their injury report.
Although the Clippers are the better team in the win column, the Bulls have been better at covering the spread. Chicago is 34-31-1 ATS this season, beating a breakeven 32-32 ATS Los Angeles team. The Clippers are a similar 16-16 ATS on the road, but the Bulls are a worse 15-16-1 ATS at home. To the Bulls’ credit, they’ve been plucky without rest this year at 6-5 ATS and 6-4-1 ATS with a rest disadvantage, but the Clippers are also a stellar 10-5 ATS with a rest advantage. That said, they’re back in action again tomorrow with a road date against the New Orleans Pelicans.
Line movement updates: The moneyline (was -275) and spread (was -6.5 -110) have moved in Chicago’s favor.
Washington Wizards at Houston Rockets NBA Odds & Trends
WAS: +240 | HOU: -300
WAS +7.5: -110 | HOU -7.5: -110
Over 226.5: -115 | Under 226.5: -105
Game Time: 8 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 11:30 a.m. ET
The Washington Wizards will visit the Houston Rockets as nearly double-digit underdogs on Thursday in a game Houston needs to win. The 30-35 Rockets find themselves four games back of the final play-in spot. Getting there won’t be easy, especially now that Alperen Sengün shelved for the rest of the season. Still, let’s see what head coach Ime Udoka can put together in H-Town.
Aside from Sengün, the Rockets list Cam Whitmore (out) on the injury report. Washington is in a tricky spot with Marvin Bagley III (out) and Richaun Holmes (questionable) both on the injury report; if neither can play, we’ll probably see Kyle Kuzma at the five again.
These teams have been tricky to bet against the spread. Houston looks like the better play here, though. The Rockets are 34-29-2 ATS, which is good, and 21-10-1 ATS at home, which is excellent — but that also means they’re 13-19-1 ATS on the road. The Rockets are also 13-8-1 ATS as a favorite. The Wizards are a rough 30-34-1 ATS this season but their 20-14-1 ATS record on the road is impressive.
Line movement updates: The moneyline (was -375) and spread (was -8.5 -110) have moved in Washington’s favor.
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Philadelphia 76ers at Milwaukee Bucks NBA Odds & Trends
PHI: +260 | MIL: -350
PHI +7.5: -110 | MIL -7.5: -110
Over 219.5: -110 | Under 219.5: -110
Game Time: 8 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 11:30 a.m. ET
The Philadelphia 76ers get the Milwaukee Bucks on Thursday. After such a promising start to the season, the 76ers just haven’t been able to overcome injuries. The Bucks haven’t had to deal with injuries to their star players all that much, but they did make a mid-season coaching change. Milwaukee appears locked into a playoff spot while Philadelphia is fighting desperately to stay out of the play-in.
The Bucks have quite the lengthy injury report for this one while the 76ers are only without Embiid, De’Anthony Melton and Robert Covington, all of whom have been absent for weeks. Giannis Antetokounmpo (probable), Patrick Beverley (probable), Malik Beasley (questionable) and Khris Middleton (out) are the names to know from their side. The injuries haven’t kept Milwaukee from trading as a sizeable home favorite.
Milwaukee has struggled to cover this year and sits at 28-37-1 ATS; Philadelphia has been quite solid at 34-31 ATS. The Bucks are a more respectable 13-15-1 ATS as a home favorite, but that still isn’t all that good. The 76ers are a solid 8-7 ATS as road dogs.
Line movement updates: The moneyline (was -375) and spread (was -8.5 -110) have moved in Philadelphia’s favor.
Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder NBA Odds & Trends
DAL: +400 | OKC: -550
DAL +10.5: -115 | OKC -10.5: -110
Over 236.5: -105 | Under 236.5: -115
Game Time: 10 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 11:30 a.m. ET
Can the Dallas Mavericks avoid the play-in tournament? It’s looking increasingly unlikely. The Mavs did just score a nice win over the Golden State Warriors on Wednesday, but they’ll now have to play again, and they draw a fantastic Oklahoma City Thunder team that got a night off. The Thunder find themselves just a half-game behind the Denver Nuggets for the No. 1 seed.
Because the Mavs played on Wednesday, we’ll have to wait for their injury report, but the Thunder are healthy for this one. Only their four G-League assignments are out. The Mavs were in control for most of Wednesday’s action, which allowed them to limit usage for most of their starters, including Kyrie Irving (35 minutes). However, Luka Doncic (30 minutes) exited with hamstring soreness and is questionable at best for Thursday’s action.
The Mavs are a profitable 36-30 ATS this season, but that’s not as impressive compared to the 39-25-1 ATS Thunder, who have been the most profitable team against the spread over the last three seasons. Dallas is also only 6-8 ATS as a road dog while Oklahoma City is 19-9 ATS as home favorite. A lack of rest hasn’t been a big deal for the Mavs this season, as they are 7-3 ATS without rest, but they are also only 9-7 ATS with a rest disadvantage. The Thunder are a steady 9-6-1 ATS with a rest advantage.
Line movement updates: The moneyline (was -450) and spread (was -9.5 -115) have moved in OKC’s favor.
New York Knicks at Portland Trail Blazers NBA Odds & Trends
NYK: -550 | POR: +400
NYK -10.5 -110 | POR +10.5: -110
Over 205.5: -110 | Under 205.5: -110
Game Time: 10 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 11:30 a.m. ET
In one of the slate’s grossest games, the New York Knicks will visit the Portland Trail Blazers. It’s a home-and-home for Portland as they toppled the Atlanta Hawks on Wednesday. Deandre Ayton (40 minutes) and Anfernee Simons (43 minutes) were asked to do a lot in the win, as they combined for 59 points, 26 rebounds and nine assists.
The injury report for this one is also in flux. We probably won’t get any news from Portland until the mid-afternoon, which will be important to follow after Ayton and Simons played so many minutes on Wednesday. New York lists Julius Randle (out) and Mitchell Robinson (out) on the injury report, so OG Anunoby is back for his second game since his multi-week absence.
New York is a steady 33-30-2 ATS this season, which is far better than 30-34 ATS Portland, but the books have been wising up to the Knicks lately. Since the start of February, New York is 5-13 ATS, failing to cover as double-digit favorites twice during that stretch. New York is 8-7 ATS with a rest advantage and 16-13-1 ATS on the road. Portland is 14-20 ATS at home but is an NBA-best 9-2 ATS without rest — although that dips to 8-6 ATS with a rest disadvantage.
Line movement updates: The moneyline (was -500) and spread (was -10.5 -105) have moved marginally in New York’s favor.
NBA Picks Today: Thursday, March 14
So what’s our pick for Thursday’s NBA card? I’m playing two moneyline favorites in a plus-money parlay.
First up: Boston. The Celtics are 29-3 at home. Their only home losses came between January 19 and February 1. Even if Brown sits, they should protect the Garden, especially since the Suns have a far more winnable game scheduled for tomorrow.
Next up: Los Angeles. The Bulls are 1-2 the day after DeMar DeRozan plays more than 40 minutes, losing games to the Detroit Pistons and Denver Nuggets, beating only the Charlotte Hornets.
I’m a bit worried about the Clips because they’ll play again tomorrow, but the Coby White injury news could cause this line to close further in L.A.’s favor. Pounce on this plus-money parlay quickly because it may close well short of even.
NBA Pick Today: LAC ML/BOS ML +100 at DraftKings
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