I’m not sure what else we can do. Bam Adebayo had NINE rebounds for most of the fourth quarter, and couldn’t grab us the last two we needed to cash our NBA parlay. Our stock feels somewhat low, but, luckily, I think I’ve found a few shares in some players we can buy low on tonight with our NBA parlay picks. So, with that kind of value, we just might have found ourselves a little Wednesday banger.
Now it’s time for our top NBA parlay picks for today, Wednesday, March 27th, including an NBA player prop pick for James Harden. Need more action? Check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos.
NBA Parlay Picks Today: +249 Bet for Wednesday
James Harden o15.5 Points (NBA Player Prop)
In the 27 minutes my video has been published on YouTube, it took all of 9 minutes for someone to comment and tell me how James Harden has only cashed the over on 15.5 points ONCE in his last eight games.
To that guy: Thanks, pal. I had no clue. You’re a gentleman, and a scholar.
Also … I don’t care.
Do Harden’s game logs look like crap lately in the points department? Honestly … they kinda do.
Do I care about that? I really don’t.
Harden is basically a 40% 3-point shooter this season, and if we look at his recent shooting performances, we can see he’s shooting at a clip DRASTICALLY below his baseline performance.
If we take those eight games our YouTube pal mentioned, Harden is shooting 3s at 28%. Do we believe that is going to be his new norm? No.
As I mentioned earlier, the player prop market is a lot like the stock market in some ways. These lines fluctuate, and sometimes the dips can dip too low. This is a spot where the dip has likely dipped too low based on recent performance.
In fact, Pinnacle Sportsbook actually has Harden’s points prop juiced HEAVILY to the over at -149, which basically means it’s getting ready to be bumped to the 16.5 mark at about -105 at any moment now.
If you don’t trust me, trust the sharpest sportsbook in the world.
Desmond Bane o18.5 Points (NBA Player Prop)
Now, I generally try to stay away from betting on ANY Memphis Grizzlies player, unless it’s a fade of Jaren Jackson Jr, buuuut … I’m willing to make an exception tonight.
And this is mostly a play against a team in the Los Angeles Lakers that is playing on the second of a back-to-back. But it wasn’t ANY OLD back-to-back. It was a double-overtime back-to-back where many of their guys played 42+ or 50+ minutes.
So, what can we glean from that? Them legs is gonna be tired. That’s what!
Since Bane’s return from injury, he’s played four games, and played 32+ minutes three times — the one game he didn’t was the blowout against Golden State.
He’s also garnered usage rates of: 32.1%, 27.1%, 25.8% and 21.6% in those four games, so the rock is in his hands PLENTY.
Despite the Lakers being known for having a strong defense, they’ve actually struggled somewhat defending the shooting guard position.
This season, the Lakers have allowed opposing shooting guards to get off for over 23 points per game, sixth-most in the NBA. And, if you want some reference, they’re .21 points per game behind the Washington Wizards in points allowed to the position.
LA opened as 6.5-point favorites, and the line has since moved to 3.5. And if you know ANYTHING about Memphis Grizzlies games, you know that NO Grizzlies game against a respectable opponent ever has this close of a spread without something being strange. Not to mention, the projected point total for the game is 222.5.
A tight spread with a healthy projected total implies a competitive game. If that’s the case, Bane is likely to be involved in that.
I like Bane’s line up to 19.5 as well, so if it moves to the 19.5 mark, I’d feel good taking it there as well.
Final NBA Picks & Parlay Bet Today
Leg 1: James Harden o15.5 Points
Leg 2: Desmond Bane o18.5 Points
= +249 odds at Bet365 Sportsbook
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
New to sports betting? OddsShopper’s selection of Betting 101 articles is here to help. Check out our guide to finding positive expected value (+EV), and you can unlock more +EV plays by signing up for OddsShopper Premium!
