Man it’s been a minute since we could yell “BANG!” in one of these articles. We need to get back to it. I want a parlay winner, and I think we have it tonight in our NBA parlay picks today post. You might not LIKE the plays, but, I think they’re gonna end up being winners. And everyone likes a winner.
Now it’s time for our top NBA parlay picks for today, Thursday, March 14th, including an NBA player prop pick for Jayson Tatum. Need more action? Check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos!
NBA Parlay Picks Today: +266 Parlay for Thursday
Jayson Tatum u44.5 PRA (NBA Player Prop)
I can already tell, you absolutely HATE how we’re starting off today. Look. I get it. You don’t like unders.
You probably hated broccoli and carrots when you were younger, too. But I bet you love both of those things now, don’t you? Don’t lie. You do. You know you do.
Unders are like vegetables. You have to learn to love them. And, in the end, they’re good for you.
Now, let’s talk about WHY we’re going under 44.5 PRA on Jayson Tatum tonight against the Phoenix Suns.
As you can see here, the OddsShopper Prop Tool identified this as one of the strongest bets on the entire board when I was combing through things earlier this morning.
It hit this badboy with a 7 OS Rating, which we love to see, and it was coming in with and EV rating over 4% — another number we absolutely love to see.
But, if you look at the bottom right of that graphic, you’ll see the gray P with the u44.5 and -149 next it. That, my friends, is Pinnacle Sportsbook — the sharpest sportsbook in the world.
And if Pinnacle is juicing that bet to the moon, do you think they know what they’re doing?
Of course they know what they’re doing. They aren’t out there building that fine establishment on them being awful at setting lines.
So, above all else, this is a system play. And we trust the system. We trust the data. And we trust the process behind the science we have at OddsShopper.
After all, 56% win rate … you truly do love to see it.
Tyus Jones u8.5 Assists (NBA Player Prop)
If you look at Tyus Jones‘ last handful of games, you’ll see some gaudy assist numbers.
His last two games look like this:
- 9 assists
- 16 assists
That’s a lot of assists. And the 16 against Miami were pretty ridiculous. There’s no two ways around that.
But, what also is ridiculous would be his assist rate over those two games, which is 67.5%.
In those two games he converted 18.5 potential assists per game into 12.5 ACTUAL assists per game. For reference, Nikola Jokic converts 62% of his potential assists for the entire season. So Jones as smashing Jokic’s season average …
Now, if you look at Jones’ season rate, it dips down to 58.4%, which is an average of 7.3 assists on 12.5 potential assists per game.
And, this matchup against the Houston hasn’t been great for point guards this season. The Rockets give up the second-fewest assists to point guards this season at only 7.42 per game.
This bet coming in at +100 odds was far too much value to pass up, especially when we had an xWin at 53%.
And, given the backup from Pinnacle having this line juiced to -131 as well, it really felt like we couldn’t let this one go by given the inflated assist rate and the tough matchup for Jones tonight in Houston.
Let’s get a bag.
Final NBA Picks & Parlay Bet Today
Leg 1: Jayson Tatum u44.5 PRA
Leg 2: Tyus Jones u8.5 Assists
= +266 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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