Tyrese Haliburton came up two points shy of cashing our parlay for us. So, in the last two days, we’ve lost two parlays by a combined 2.5 points. You really can’t make this stuff up. Now it’s time for our top NBA parlay picks for today, Wednesday, March 13th, including an NBA player prop pick for Nikola Jokic. Need more action?
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NBA Parlay Picks Today: +266 Parlay for Wednesday
Nikola Jokic o8.5 Assists (NBA Player Prop)
When perusing the OddsShopper tool this morning, I stumbled upon Nikola Jokic over 8.5 assists for +100 value. I noticed that it was -113 or nearing -120 at some other books, so it felt like a spot where we were getting value on a superstar with immense upside in the assist department.
Too good to pass up.
Jokic is a walking triple-double, and averages over 9 assists per game this season on almost 75 passes per game. Yes, I said 75.
Over his last 15 games, Jokic is averaging 9.8 assists, on 15 potential assists per game, so he’s really cashing in on his chances. However, if you expand that picture out to the full season, the numbers virtually exactly aligned with that same 15-game window.
There’s always going to be the narrative from the haters that Bam Adebayo will be able to defend Jokic in the paint. When, in fact, that is probably more of a case FOR the assists than against them. Bam would likely be able to stop Jokic from scoring, which would turn him into more of a facilitator.
It’s a somewhat short spread at 3.5, so it should be a competitive game. And when the game is close late, the ball is in the hands of Jokic to make plays.
At +100 value here, I couldn’t pass it up.
Klay Thompson u27.5 PRA (NBA Player Prop)
Again, the OddsShopper EV bet tool was doing WORK this morning.
It basically slammed this Klay Thompson under in my face, and, if there’s anything I’ve come to love this NBA season, it’s a Klay Thompson under.
So, we’re going under 27.5 PRA for Thompson against the Mavs tonight.
It was the highest +EV bet on the board when I bet it earlier, and when we got it -110, it was basically breaking the OS Rating model.
Yes, Stephen Curry is out, so Klay is likely to get more jacks. But, even if he does get 20-22 points, he’s still unlikely to get over this 27.5 PRA line.
Klay is a one-trick pony, and that trick is scoring. So, if the way he beats me on a PRA line is by scoring 24 or 25 … then so be it.
But, it would be really cool if he didn’t.
Final NBA Picks & Parlay Bet Today
Leg 1: Nikola Jokic o8.5 Assists
Leg 2: Klay Thompson u27.5 PRA
= +266 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
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