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NBA Parlay Picks: Using Game Theory as Playoffs Loom (April 7)

Not much time remains in the 2022-23 NBA regular season. That means not everybody has something left to play for. However, these three teams can all improve their seeding with wins, so we’ll target them on the moneyline. Let’s use some basic game theory to cook up an NBA parlay. Here are my top NBA parlay picks for Friday, April 7 at FanDuel Sportsbook.

 

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Best NBA Parlay Picks | April 7

Toronto Raptors -130

Let’s start with the shakiest leg. The Toronto Raptors are only 2-point favorites over the Boston Celtics tonight, but that number has been trending up all day. The Celtics are locked into the Eastern Conference’s second seed and have listed a number of players on the injury report. Marcus Smart, Derrick White and Malcolm Brogdon are all questionable.

The Raptors are likely stuck as the ninth seed, but they can improve to the eighth seed if the Atlanta Hawks lose out. The Hawks will play the Philadelphia 76ers at 7:30 p.m. ET this evening, the same time the Raptors will square off against the Celtics. Look for the Raptors to get a solid road win over Boston to stay in the mix for the ninth seed.

Miami Heat -195

This leg is also somewhat shaky. The Miami Heat will play the long-since eliminated Washington Wizards, but they won’t have either Jimmy Butler or Bam Adebayo for the contest. Even Tyler Herro will sit. But because the Heat can improve to the sixth seed if the cards fall the right way, I expect their coaching staff to at least try beat the Wizards this evening.

It helps that Washington has checked out on the season. Bradley Beal, Kyle Kuzma and Kristaps Porzingis are all out, which leaves guys like Delon Wright and Corey Kispert to lead the team. The shorthanded Wizards have gotten cooked by the Orlando Magic, New York Knicks, Milwaukee Bucks and Atlanta Hawks in recent days. Expect the Heat to keep piling on.

New Orleans Pelicans -375

Our parlay’s safest leg, the New Orleans Pelicans will line up against a New York Knicks squad that is locked into the Eastern Conference’s fifth seed. The Knicks have taken the opportunity to rest their starters, including Jalen Brunson and Mitchell Robinson, who have both been ruled out. Julius Randle remains on the shelf as well.

The Pelicans can finish fifth in the Western Conference if the cards fall the right way. Conversely, they can finish ninth if they falter down the stretch. Expect New Orleans to score a layup win over an unmotivated team to keep their chances of staying out of the play-in tournament alive.

Final NBA Parlay Picks for April 7

Raptors ML + Heat ML + Pelicans ML +243 for 0.33 Unit at FanDuel

Trading at +243, this parlay has implied odds of 29.1%. The bet should win slightly less than half the time. Although late-season upsets aren’t uncommon, it’s not unfair to presume that NBA teams are rational actors. The reward of marginally improved seeding likely outweighs the risk of trying to win tonight’s games. Also, each of these teams’ opponents can gain nothing from winning tonight.

We’re placing this NBA parlay at FanDuel Sportsbook. If you don’t already have a FanDuel account, you can register using this link to score a no-sweat first bet worth up to $1,000! That’s a great way to build your bankroll, especially in advance of the NBA playoffs.

The legal gambling age is 21+ in most states. Gambling Problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.

Isaiah Sirois

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Isaiah Sirois

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