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NBA PrizePicks, Sleeper Fantasy, Underdog Fantasy, Dabble
Implied odds on PrizePicks are -119, and Smith less than 22.5 points + rebounds + assists is getting a 57% win rate. That is subsequently making OddsShopper’s True Odds -131, so this play is 4.5% +EV.
Underdog Fantasy’s implied odds are -121 on all their picks. That means, since Poeltl less than 12.5 points has a 57% expected win percentage against True Odds of -131, the expected value on this play is +3.5%.
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Sleeper Fantasy is different from other pick’em sites in that they assign multipliers for each pick rather than site-wide implied odds. That makes it tough to land +EV picks — today is no exception. However, Podziemski less than 5.5 assists is the closest, with a 62% win rate on a mediocre 1.60x multiplier (-167 implied odds).
Dabble trails PrizePicks and Underdog in the implied odds department, going -126 across the app. DeRozan less than 23.5 points has an expected winning percentage of 56%, which is giving it -130 True Odds and thus a +1.2% EV.
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