The NBA roars on with a loaded Friday slate following Thursday’s two-game card. While the NCAA men’s basketball tournament has taken center stage, there’s still plenty of value to exploit on the NBA player prop markets. Let’s dive into our top NBA picks today as we break down our expert bets for Tuesday, including a Tyrese Haliburton prediction. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out our guide to NBA player prop betting.
NBA Picks Today: Expert Bets for Friday, March 29
NBA Expert Pick #1: Best Kyle Kuzma Bet
Kuzma’s usage rate is hovering right at around 30% this season, and with Tyus Jones out, he’s likely to have the ball in his hands more than usual again tonight against the inept Detroit Pistons. He has 18 points or more in all but two games this month, so you know that he’ll get his jacks as the No. 1 option in this offense.
This matchup features two woeful defenses that like to get up and down the court, and we’re looking at a total of 228 points. This game could easily fly over that total, and even if it doesn’t, Kuzma is likely to see in the neighborhood of 20 shots. The Stokastic projections have Kuzma scoring just over 24 points tonight, so, in the model we trust.
NBA Expert Pick Today: Kyle Kuzma Over 22.5 Points -109 at BetRivers
NBA Expert Pick #2: Best Dennis Schröder Bet
OddsShopper’s NBA betting model strongly recommends you put some of your heard-earned money down on this Dennis Schröder player prop as quickly as possible. Sharps will gobble up the value soon, so act fast because bets like this one can get bet off the board quickly!
DraftKings is currently offering a bet for odds of +130 that our model believes has true odds of +117 — a conclusion it reaches because Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the same bet priced for +108 — and several other books, including FanDuel, have this one priced at +100.
Over a large enough sample size, bets like this one are enough to transform your bankroll. Two weeks ago, we cut up the books for an 8.9% ROI, including a 16.5% ROI on one specific NBA player prop market.
Those results aren’t variance: from the start of the season to the All-Star Break, our model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip.
If you haven’t signed up for OddsShopper Premium, you can usually access all our college basketball betting tools for $14.95 per week or $49.95 per month, but you can use promo code “ISIROIS” at checkout to get your first week for 20% off!
NBA Expert Pick Today: Dennis Schröder Under 6.5 Assists +130 at DraftKings
NBA Expert Pick #3: Best Deandre Ayton Bet
I was thrilled to see this Deandre Ayton player prop popping at the top of OddsShopper Premium’s list of bets today because I was planning to fade him anyway. Ayton and the Portland Trail Blazers draw a tough matchup versus the Miami Heat, who are notoriously stingy with regards to opposing centers. Miami ranks third in points allowed (20.1), 14th in rebounds allowed (14.4) and first in assists allowed (3.4) on a per-game basis to the position this season.
Ayton’s points, rebounds and assists (PRA) prop is trading at 32.5 today, and the under will only cost you -115 at Hard Rock and -120 at BetMGM. Pinnacle, a high-limit, sharp sportsbook, lists the same bet for a much stingier price of -163. Most other public books are charging -135 or worse for this bet, so make sure to buy it at Hard Rock or BetMGM to maximize your returns.
Ayton is averaging only 28.5 PRA per game this season, so we’re getting this bet at a whopping four PRA below his season average. While it’s true that he has taken major strides since the All-Star Break, after which he has averaged 37.9 PRA per game, he’s benefited from lining up against plenty of soft defenses, including the Charlotte Hornets and Atlanta Hawks.
Ayton last played the Heat on February 27, and they held him to 12 points, 10 rebounds and two assists in only 19 minutes of action. That total of 24 PRA is well under this line, and while his rate of 1.25 PRA per minute is concerning, expect the Heat to adjust and make sure he contributes less tonight. The Heat have allowed Ayton to clear this total in just three of his 10 starts against them.
NBA Expert Pick Today: Deandre Ayton Under 32.5 PRA -115 at Hard Rock
