Today’s NBA slate offers up several interesting spots for sports bettors, especially in tonight’s game between the Philadelphia 76ers and Miami Heat, a game for which we have two picks. Let’s dive into our top NBA picks today as we break down our expert bets for Monday, including a Stephen Curry prediction. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out our guide to NBA player prop betting.
NBA Picks Today: Expert Bets for Monday, March 18
NBA Expert Pick #1: Best Stephen Curry Bet
Editor’s note (3/18/2024 at 4 p.m. ET): OG Anunoby has been ruled out. The below bet is still beating the market, per our +EV betting tools, so it remains on the card.
The Golden State Warriors will face the stingy New York Knicks this evening. Star defender OG Anunoby is questionable for New York, but he hasn’t missed a game since his return to the floor on March 12, and it’s probably safe to assume he’ll suit up.
When Anunoby is on the floor, the Knicks are borderline unstoppable. He returned three games ago, and since then, New York ranks first in defensive rating (93.9) by a 7.5-point margin. They also rank 28th in pace, minimizing the chances their opponents have had to put the ball in the hoop.
I’m probably going to fade multiple Warriors today, but I started by putting a unit on Stephen Curry to stay under 26.5 points. That’s a low total for Curry — he is averaging 27 points per game this year — but that number slips to 22 since the All-Star Break.
You’ll find Curry trading at -110 to stay under the 26.5 at most public books, including DraftKings. The same NBA player prop bet is trading at -130 at Pinnacle, so we’re beating the market for enough positive expected value (+EV).
NBA Expert Pick Today: Stephen Curry Under 26.5 Points -110 at DraftKings
NBA Expert Pick #2: Best Bam Adebayo Bet
OddsShopper’s NBA betting tools advise getting action down on this Bam Adebayo player prop before the value gets bid off the board. FanDuel is offering a bet for odds of -130 that our model believes has breakeven odds of -142, a conclusion it draws because Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the same bet priced for -169.
Bets like this one, over a large enough sample size, are enough to dramatically transform your bankroll. Over the last seven days, we’re cutting up the books for an 8.9% ROI, including a 16.5% ROI on one specific NBA player prop market.
Those results aren’t variance: from the start of the season to the All-Star Break, our model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip.
If you haven’t signed up for OddsShopper Premium, you can usually access all our NBA betting tools for $14.99 per week or $49.95 per month, but make sure to use promo code “PURDUE” at checkout to get your first week for $1!
NBA Expert Pick Today: Bam Adebayo Under 3.5 Assists -130 at FanDuel
NBA Expert Pick #3: Best Kyle Lowry Bet
I’m playing Kyle Lowry under 16.5 points, rebounds and assists for odds of -104. This bet is beating the true odds of -115, and every other book’s price.
Thanks to OddsShopper’s +EV market-based approach, I can identify this spot to attack, which will yield a long-term profit.
Lowry is on a sinking ship in Philadelphia, but the 76ers are still tied with the Heat. A commanding win tonight by Miami would see Lowry struggle and see less time on the floor, which is a large part of why we’re betting the under.
NBA Expert Pick Today: Kyle Lowry Under 16.5 -104 at FanDuel
