Yesterday’s slate didn’t offer up much in the way of options, so tonight’s loaded card is a bit of a return to normlacy. Questionable tags abound, so do be cautious when getting action down early. Let’s dive into our top NBA picks today as we break down our expert bets for Wednesday, including a Mikal Bridges prediction. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out our guide to NBA player prop betting.
NBA Picks Today: Expert Bets for Wednesday, March 27
NBA Expert Pick #1: Best Desmond Bane Bet
Since Bane’s return from injury, he has played 32-plus minutes in three of four games with a usage rate of 25% or more in three of those four games to boot. The guy is touching the rock a lot.
The Lakers have struggled to defend the shooting guard position and are playing the second of a back-to-back. You know, your typical double-OT back-to-back in which some of their guys played 45-plus to 50-plus minutes. 😳
LA opened as 6.5-point favorites, and the line has since moved to 3.5. Not to mention, the projected point total for the game is 222.5.
A tight spread with a healthy projected total implies a competitive game. If that’s the case, Bane is likely to be highly involved in keeping things close.
NBA Expert Pick Today: Desmond Bane Over 19.5 Points -109 at Caesars
NBA Expert Pick #2: Best Mikal Bridges Bet
OddsShopper’s NBA betting model recommends you get some exposure to this Mikal Bridges player prop immediately: BetRivers is currently offering a bet for odds of +125 that our model believes has true odds of +105. It draws that conclusion because Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the same bet priced at -111.
Over a large enough sample size, bets like this one are enough to transform your bankroll. Our results aren’t variance: from the start of the season to the All-Star Break, our model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip.
If you haven’t signed up for OddsShopper Premium, you can usually access all our NBA betting tools for $14.95 per week or $49.95 per month, but you can use promo code “PLAYBALL” at checkout to get your first week for 50% off!
NBA Expert Pick Today: Mikal Bridges Under 3.5 Assists +125 at BetRivers
NBA Expert Pick #3: Best Amen Thompson Bet
Thompson has relied on efficiency—not volume—to manufacture scoring, sporting a pedestrian 18 percent usage rate in seven games since Alperen Sengün hit the shelf.
A whopping 65% of all Thompson’s field goal attempts have come at the rim. That won’t do him any favors tonight against an Oklahoma City Thunder team that is better in rim protection than any team in basketball.
NBA Expert Pick Today: Amen Thompson Under 13.5 Points -115 at BetMGM
NBA Expert Pick #4: Best Jonathan Kuminga Bet
This Jonathan Kuminga player prop had marginal positive expected value (+EV) in the model this morning, but it has more value for non-market-based reasons. Kuminga and the Golden State Warriors are in a must-win situation but are playing on the wrong end of a back-to-back set, drawing a tough road matchup with the Orlando Magic. Orlando is favored by four.
Despite Golden State’s dire straits, we’re fading Kuminga on the points market by backing him to stay under 16.5. It’s a number he was clearing with ease up until a few weeks ago, but his relatively limited bag of tricks has caught up to him. Kuminga is a talented interior scorer, but that’s pretty much all he’s doing — 71% of his field goal attempts this year have come in the paint.
Kuminga’s reliance on interior scoring is a problem versus this Orlando defense. The Magic rank third in defensive rating on the year (110.9) but are first since the All-Star Break (106.8). That corresponds to an improvement in interior defense — Orlando ranks eighth in points allowed in the paint per game on the year (47.7) but is fourth since the All-Star Break (44.1).
NBA Expert Pick Today: Jonathan Kuminga Under 16.5 Points +100 at DraftKings
